Challenges ahead as Provincias Unidas battles against polarisation

Argentina’s centrist Provincias Unidas front entered the final stretch of the midterm elections campaign with an ambitious mission: breaking through the polarisation of the ruling La Libertad Avanza alliance and the opposition Fuerza Patria coalition. Its main goal, however, is to consolidate its position as a federal alternative to power and grow territorial roots for the future battles to come. 

It’s a risky move, one that will immediately clarify which of the six governors making up the newly formed group can break that polarisation in their respective provinces – and which cannot. In short, two groups will emerge: those who manage to win or come second, and those pushed into third or fourth place in their territories.

The results will determine winners and losers when it comes to establishing clear leadership within the fledgling league of governors.

Provincias Unidas brings together six leaders currently governing key provinces in Argentina's interior: Claudio Vidal (Santa Cruz), Ignacio Torres (Chubut), Martín Llaryora (Córdoba), Maximiliano Pullaro (Santa Fe), Carlos Sadir (Jujuy), and Gustavo Sáenz (Salta). From this group, the space will attempt to project itself nationally with a discourse that champions the autonomy of the provinces in the face of “the centralist logic of Buenos Aires.”

Córdoba will be one of the key provinces to watch: Martín Llaryora, the anti-Kirchnerite Peronist governor, is running the former presidential candidate Juan Schiaretti at the top of the ticket for national deputies. It won’t be easy: La Libertad Avanza is also expected to perform well there. If Llaryora hopes to lead Provincias Unidas into 2027 alongside the former Córdoba governor, he will need a convincing win on home turf.

In Santa Fe, Vice-Governor Gisela Scaglia (PRO) is seeking to maintain her relevance against both a libertarian surge and the opposition Peronist force.

Meanwhile, in Chubut, the leadership of Nacho Torres is also at stake, with the Despertar Chubut ticket led by PRO deputy Ana Clara Romero and UCR Deputy Governor Gustavo Menna heading the list for the Lower House.

In Jujuy, Sadir is trying to transfer the Radical support base of ex-governor Gerardo Morales, while in Corrientes, Governor Gustavo Valdés is attempting to do the same with his own backing.

The outlook is less clear in other districts where the Provincias Unidas banner is present – particularly in metropolitan areas, which accounts for 45 percent of the electorate. In both Buenos Aires City and Buenos Aires Province, the scenario is heavily polarised and highly nationalised, with LLA and Fuerza Patria appearing to dominate voter preference.

Lawmaker Florencio Randazzo is heading the Buenos Aires Province list for Provincias Unidas, alongside Margarita Stolbizer and Emilio Monzó. Martín Lousteau, running for deputy, and Graciela Ocaña with Martín Ocampo for the Senate are part of the slate for the City under the Ciudadanos Unidos banner. 

The big question for the provincial governors is whether, in both cases, they can break into double digits and help consolidate the space – or whether, on the contrary, they’ll end up in an unappealing position in both districts.

As for the numbers, recent polls highlight the challenge facing this new political space. In Buenos Aires Province, a Proyección Consultores survey places Randazzo at 4.8 percent. Nationally, the same study suggests the front could reach 6.5 percent, while the libertarians lead with 36.4 percent. Another poll by Nueva Comunicación shows Fuerza Patria on 43.1 percent, LLA on 28.3 percent and Randazzo on 3.3 percent, with 10.6percent undecided.

In Córdoba, local pollsters (including CB and Delfos) show voting intention for Schiaretti of between 24 percent and 28 percent. In Santa Fe, GyC Comunicaciones measured a technical tie: Fuerza Patria 26 percent, Provincias Unidas 25 percent, and LLA 21 percent. In the City, the numbers suggest around 40 percent for LLA in the Senate race and 25 percent for Fuerza Patria, with Provincias Unidas competing to break into double digits with Ocaña. 

All this is taking place amid subterranean internal conflicts that have not yet come to light. One of them, however, is plain: Governor Valdés loathes Lousteau. They’ve been at odds for years, and if the governor performs well in Corrientes while the economist does not in CABA, there may be consequences. Valdés is already eyeing the presidency of the national UCR party to replace Lousteau, particularly if the numbers in the capital go against the latter.

All in all, the governors' bloc could end up with between 16 and 20 national deputies – a key caucus to either unblock or obstruct legislation.