Economic activity in Argentina rose 4.4% in 2025 year-on-year, reports INDEC

Economic activity in Argentina rose 4.4 percent in 2025 year-on-year, the INDEC national statistics bureau revealed on Tuesday.

December capped off an improved economic year for President Javier MIlei’s government with further growth, consolidating the rebound. 

INDEC’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) showed growth of 1.8 percent in the final month of last year compared to November, the previous month, with a strong 3.5 percent rise from December 2024. The increase was the strongest since July 2024, when activity grew 2.6 percent.

The EMAE serves as a preliminary indicator for the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report published by INDEC. The agency, headed by Pedro Lines, will release third-quarter data and the full-year 2025 GDP figures in March.

Eleven of the sectors measured by the EMAE recorded growth in December. Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry stood out with a staggering 32.2 percent monthly increase from November, driven by what officials described as a “historic wheat harvest” in both volume and average yields.

On the negative side, manufacturing fell 3.9 percent and wholesale and retail trade, including repairs, declined 1.3 percent in December. Together, they scrubbed 0.8 points from the overall EMAE monthly figure.

Senior figures within the ruling coalition were quick to celebrate the stronger-than-expected performance, which beat the forecasts of several private consultancy firms.

President Javier Milei hailed the annual figure, declaring on social media that "Argentina is moving forward."

"The prophets of chaos are not going to like this,” he said, claiming that growth would have been seven percent if it were not for the fear of the opposition returning to power.

Economic activity declined 1.8 percent year-on-year in 2024.

Inflation tamed

Milei has made significant macroeconomic progress since taking office in December 2023.

Inflation fell from 211.4 percent in 2023, after which his government severely devalued the peso, to 31.5 percent in 2025 – the lowest level in eight years.

Milei’s administration also posted fiscal surpluses for two consecutive years, the first time since 2008.

But those figures came alongside a sharp budget adjustment and deep cuts to public spending.

An opening of imports has hit manufacturing activity harsh, with more than 21,000 companies closing over the past two years and around 300,000 jobs lost, according to union sources.

“It’s a mirage,” economist Pablo Tigani, a regular critic of Milei’s administration, said of the EMAE growth data.

“A controlled exchange rate, rising public debt, falling consumption, the first drop in foreign direct investment in 23 years, inflation combined with recession and protest crackdowns,” he added. “The programme is not viable.”

In its latest World Economic Outlook update in January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast four percent growth for Argentina in 2026 and 2027.

Milei’s government projects five percent growth for this year. 

Following the October midterm elections, the President has moved ahead with the first of his proposed “structural reforms,” a labour modernisation bill that he hopes to secure final approval for on Friday.

On March 1, Milei will address Congress to deliver the annual state-of-the-nation opening speech of ordinary legislative sessions, setting out his next measures.

– TIMES/NA/AFP