Flavio Bolsonaro’s rapid rise in Brazil presidential polls surprises sceptics

Flavio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy is shifting into higher gear, surprising septics who initially didn’t believe his decision to run for Brazil’s top job was real. 

Some investors and centrist allies initially saw it as a ploy to win amnesty for his father, imprisoned former leader Jair Bolsonaro, rather than a serious candidacy. Many feared Flavio’s bid would throw the October election to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

But his sudden surge in polls now is sending a stark message to naysayers: Flavio, who two months ago wasn’t considered a strong contender despite hailing from an influential family, has a real chance to become Brazil’s leader. 

The question is whether the 44-year-old senator will seek to ride his father’s coattails to the Presidency, or forge his own path. Throughout a two-decade career in elected office, Flavio has rarely strayed from the long political shadow cast by Jair Bolsonaro, who won election in 2018 on an militantly right-wing message. 

But the chaos of his time in office – hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths, rampant deforestation that isolated Brazil internationally, and ultimately his imprisonment for plotting a coup after his 2022 defeat – alienated many supporters. That complicated legacy is giving Flavio reason to court voters beyond his family’s fervent base of support.

For years, Flavio depicted himself as a slightly more moderate version of the patriarch, urging both his father and younger brother, former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, to tone down their rhetoric for political gain.

“The right has to be more centre-right,” he told Bloomberg News in early 2024.

In recent weeks, the senator has used an even softer tone to woo moderates who are likely to dictate the outcome of a race in a country that remains hyperpolarised between the Lula-led left and Bolsonaro right-wing politics.

Flavio posted on social media in defence of Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior after the Black Brazilian football superstar faced racist abuse in Portugal. This week, he said he’d count on “all of you” to win the election in a text that included the use of “todes, todys, e todXs” – gender-neutral terms more associated with the left. 

That’s a world away from his father, who once said he’d rather have a dead son than a gay one and was fined by a federal court over accusations that he’d made racist remarks about a Black Brazilian.

Market reticence 

Still, Flavio has a long way to go to convince critics who say he’s struggled to enunciate changes to the Bolsonaro brand that are more than cosmetic.

On economics, he’s repeatedly promised a finance minister in the mould of Paulo Guedes, who held the role under Jair Bolsonaro after his support helped bring investors on board in 2018. But he’s yet to present concrete details of his plans, instead leaning on vague pledges of spending cuts, privatisations and the elimination of red tape, and his first appearance at a major business event left investors disappointed.

Flavio has declined some invitations for private meetings with investors in recent weeks, buying time to develop plans and learn the language of the markets, according to people familiar with the situation. 

He’s yet to begin formal outreach to potential finance chiefs, said two other people, who requested anonymity to discuss the matter freely. But the names that have been floated – like former Central Bank chief Roberto Campos Neto and ex-Treasury Secretary Mansueto Almeida – appear unlikely to play a role in his campaign or an eventual government.

Flavio didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

Markets are desperate for an alternative to Lula, whose spendthrift policies have caused budget deficits and public debt loads to balloon on his watch. 

But as much as they loved Guedes, they remember how often Bolsonaro overruled him: The country’s fiscal outlook also deteriorated under the right-wing populist.

“Serious policy experts require a level of autonomy that historically clashes with the Bolsonaro family’s centralised, loyalty-based political style,” said Marcio Coimbra, head of the Casa Politica lobbying firm. “The fears regarding family associations remain real hurdles.”

Family dilemma

Any attempt to deviate on political messaging, meanwhile, risks inflaming tensions within the volatile Bolsonaro family. 

Eduardo, who once mused about his own presidential prospects, has gone all-in for Flavio from the United States. But former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, their stepmother, has been more tepid in her support. She and Eduardo have at times traded barbs in public. 

Lula is waiting to pounce. Although allies have shown some concern about Flavio’s rise in the polls, others say the veteran leader is unfazed. 

In the view of one ally, the senator’s strength makes it less likely that São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a favourite of investors, will run. Once it’s clear he won’t, they will be ready to focus on Flavio’s potential vulnerabilities, including his calls for amnesty for his father and a past investigation into an alleged kickback scheme while he was a state lawmaker. Flavio denied wrongdoing and the case was dismissed. 

Lula remains a slight favourite, said Christopher Garman, executive director for the Americas at the Eurasia Group. The president’s approval, while stuck below 50 percent, is high enough to win reelection. Furthermore, improving economic conditions – including low unemployment and also a strengthening currency that should help keep inflation in check – are in his favour.

But recent polls suggest that Brazil may not be immune from trends that have pushed Latin America back toward the right: a mix of anti-incumbent sentiment and rising voter concern about crime have fuelled conservative wins in Argentina, Ecuador and Chile.

Already, some within markets are learning to like Flavio.

“He certainly isn’t the dream candidate,” said Ivo Chermont, chief economist at asset manager Quantitas. “Markets are shifting into a ‘this is what we have for now’ mode.”

Surveys show that both Lula and Flavio have similar rejection rates. But if the senator continues to look like a credible alternative, it’s likely investors will jump on board regardless of his ability to differentiate himself from his dad, multiple people from the financial industry said.

“It’ll win some people over,” said Mario Braga, a geopolitical analyst at the consultancy RANE. “The question is if it’ll win enough people over.”