Lula hugs it out with Milei, but saves warm embrace for Fernández de Kirchner

The sharp divides roiling Latin American politics were visible in a pair of hugs.

The first was a stiff and awkward squeeze between Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Argentina’s Javier Milei that came at the conclusion of a summit of leaders from Mercosur, the South American customs union of which both are members, on Thursday in Buenos Aires.

It had nothing on the second: a nostalgic, loving embrace Lula shared with Milei’s arch-nemesis, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, about an hour later. 

For the past two years, the iconoclastic but ideologically-opposite leaders have been locked in a fierce battle to shape the direction of their continent’s political and economic futures – one that has led each into the arms of the other’s biggest rival. 

Milei, the chainsaw-wielding libertarian, has cozied up to Donald Trump and European nationalists, and made a point of attending a rally alongside right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro on a visit to Brazil last July. 

Nearly a year to the day later, it was Lula’s turn. Instead of a bilateral with Milei, the veteran leftist who staged a comeback after serving time in prison won judicial approval to visit Kirchner, his old ally who is now under house arrest after a corruption conviction.

For now, the tit-for-tat has no obvious victor. Each has an approval rating hovering around 45 percent, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. 

Both are overseeing growing yet troubled economies. And it’s not yet clear whose strategy toward Trump’s trade war will prevail. Milei has clearly chosen Trump, while Lula has tilted toward Beijing.

But the current winds appear to be blowing in Milei’s direction. 

Despite suffering a legal blow from a US ruling involving his nation’s state-run oil company this week, the Argentine has been on a winning streak. Inflation is slowing, the economy has rebounded, and he’s on the cusp of victories in October midterm elections that will serve as a referendum on his “shock therapy” prescription for Argentina’s ills.

Investors, meanwhile, are increasingly betting that the region will shift rightward in upcoming elections in Chile, Bolivia and Colombia. 

Lula, by contrast, has been in a rut for months as his old political playbook struggles to meet the demands of Brazilians. Markets are already starting to bet he’ll fall next year.

The visit with Fernández de Kirchner was only his latest nostalgic homage to a past he’s struggled to recapture.

At the height of their powers amid the region’s early-21st century commodities boom, he and Fernández de Kirchner were unstoppable giants who’d become symbols of the global left. These days, Fernández de Kirchner is stuck in her Buenos Aires apartment and barred for life from holding office, the fading leader of a toppled Peronist era.

She paints herself a victim of a politicised legal case, echoing the arguments Lula used before the corruption convictions that sent him to prison were annulled. She hailed the Brazilian’s visit as a grand gesture of solidarity. 

But the crowds outside were light, failing to fill the block. There were nearly as many reporters as supporters. Lula’s presidential motorcade came and left with barely the tap of a brake light for traffic.

“If I told you I sold maybe three shirts and two hats, I’d be exaggerating,” said Micaela Mastrangelo, who was selling merchandise emblazoned with images of Fernández de Kirchner nearby.