Macron left powerless by EU trade push with French farmers up in arms

Emmanuel Macron’s year from hell could get worse yet.

As the embattled French leader lands in Brazil for the Group of 20 summit, farmers are set to mobilise across France in protest against a politically explosive free trade deal between the European Union and Latin America’s Mercosur bloc.

The massive trade pact, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, has been in negotiation for nearly a quarter of a century. France has long been the chief opponent of the deal, citing the need for guarantees that Mercosur competitors will face the same health and environmental standards as their European counterparts.

But this time, things are different — as the agreement is nearing the finish line despite French objections.

Capitalising on French weakness in Brussels on the back of Macron’s diminished political capital, Germany, Italy and Spain, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have doubled down on getting the accord over the line in a matter of weeks. The EU is aiming to close the deal in early December, according to sources close to the discussions. 

It is a defeat that a beleaguered Macron — faced with the might and ferocity of the French farmer — will not be able to set aside easily. 

The pace and trajectory of negotiations has given French government officials fresh impetus to engage in frenetic lobbying to block the deal. 

Following a meeting with von der Leyen earlier this week, Prime Minister Michel Barnier forcefully reiterated France’s position saying the pact was unacceptable in its current form.

“I’m all about trade, but free and fair,” said Barnier, who is also tackling the difficult job of getting France’s budget passed through a fractious parliament where his government lacks a majority.

Behind the scenes, officials close to Macron acknowledge that he doesn’t have any good options ahead of him. Even if he manages to squeeze out financial compensation for French farmers – something the commission is said to be considering — it is unlikely to assuage farmers’ concerns, who are already dealing with weather-hit harvests. And if Macron continues to oppose the deal, von der Leyen could end up bypassing him anyway, making him look powerless on the European stage.

New protests

Meanwhile, farmers unions have called for a new wave of protests against the deal across France starting Monday, saying an increase in agricultural imports from Latin America will hurt their livelihoods. The trade pact aims to gradually eliminate customs duties on 90 percent of the goods traded between the two blocs, creating a market of nearly 780 million consumers.

Farmers fear the influx of cheaper produce and meat could devastate agriculture. 

“This trade agreement risks having dramatic consequences for agriculture,” Arnaud Rousseau, the head of France’s largest farming union FNSEA told France Inter radio.

The mobilisation is aimed at making “the voice of France heard at the time of the G20 in Brazil, and we hope that all the European countries will join us because the subject is not a country, a French subject, it is a European subject,” he said.

The geopolitical backdrop of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, China’s growing global trade ambitions, and the weak spot the EU finds itself in, will do nothing to lighten the mood of a potentially uncomfortable meeting between Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the annual summit.

Host Brazil also shares geopolitical goals with China, through the BRICS group of which they are both founding members. Meanwhile, Latin American agribusiness sector exports sent to European Union countries have declined in recent years, notably in favour of China.

“If we don’t do a trade agreement, then this void will be filled really by China,” incoming EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said last week referring to the Mercosur pact. 

The intense political jockeying at the G20, with France strongly objecting to the deal, the EU in favour, and the Mercosur countries courting Chinese Premier Xi Jinping who plans to attend, is likely to deliver a tense summit.

France’s Pain, whose gain?

An adviser to Macron said they are particularly worried about the fate of some specific beef cuts that are sold with high margins, sustaining the entire sector, and which could face stiff competition from Mercosur producers. Farmers oppose the deal because they say that some sectors would face unfair competition from Mercosur producers using sometimes undetectable antibiotics or hormones.

The deal would however open the highly protectionist Mercosur market to European exports such as cars and machinery — thus creating a much-needed sales market for Germany’s export-oriented economy, which is currently in a prolonged slump. Countries like Spain, which has cultural and linguistic ties to South America, also stand to benefit from access to new markets.

Von der Leyen is under pressure from Mercosur countries keen to end the negotiations as quickly as possible amid China’s ever-expanding economic footprint on the continent. French officials also worry that von der Leyen may be emboldened to strike a deal with Latin American countries after Trump’s victory, in a bid to expand the EU’s geopolitical reach. The president-elect has promised to implement chunky tariffs on EU goods.

Out of runway

If the trouncing by far-right leader Marine Le Pen in European elections earlier this year and a subsequent loss of his relative parliamentary majority in snap elections weren’t bad enough, the deal threatens to further tarnish Macron’s legacy. Farmers hold considerable political clout in France. The annual International Agricultural Show in Paris is a must-attend for French politicians keen to show off their common man credentials. Pushing French farmers to the brink could also give ammunition to Le Pen ahead of possible legislative elections next year, and a 2027 presidential election, in which she remains a frontrunner, according to recent polls.

The commission’s move to seal one of the largest free-trade agreements ever is fraught with political risks. Von der Leyen, who was Macron’s pick for commission chief back in 2019, could provoke a diplomatic war if she were to push the deal past French objections.

Brussels could also propose to have part of the deal implemented in a provisional manner in order to avoid a lengthy ratification process that requires a sign-off from every national parliament. Concerns remain however that such a move by Brussels could further fuel Euroscepticism. 

A French official called the possibility of von der Leyen passing the key trade provisions on a provisional basis despite France’s opposition, an undemocratic “trick.”