Milei’s disapproval rating hits new high as midterm lead shrinks

President Javier Milei’s disapproval rating rose for a third straight month to a new high in September amid bribery allegations involving his sister, while his party’s lead in October’s crucial midterm race narrowed in a new poll.

More than half – 53.7 percent – of Argentines disapprove of Milei while 42.4 percent support the libertarian leader, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. While Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, is still projected to win the October midterms, its estimated lead ahead of the main opposition Peronist party has been cut in half since July, AtlasIntel found.

The landslide defeat Milei’s party suffered in a Buenos Aires Province vote on September 7 also boosted the opposition Peronist party, now dubbed Fuerza Patria. Provincial Governor Axel Kicillof has gained in popularity above his Peronist matriarch, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, as the country’s second-most liked politician behind Milei.

“La Libertad Avanza’s shrinking lead over Fuerza Patria ahead of October’s national legislative elections shows the growing challenges President Javier Milei is facing,” said Yuri Sanches, head of political analysis at AtlasIntel. “The heavy defeat in Buenos Aires Province was a clear warning sign, driven both by voter backlash and the strength of the Peronist political machine there.”

Argentines head to the polls October 26 in Milei’s most important electoral test since taking office, where investors are closely watching how much he can increase his party’s presence in Congress to pass more market-friendly reforms and resist rivals’ efforts to overturn his legislative vetoes.

A bribery scandal that came to light in August and involves graft allegations against the president’s sister and top adviser, Karina Milei, hit a nerve with voters. Corruption shot up as Argentines’ top concern, overshadowing unemployment and inflation. The Milei siblings deny any wrongdoing and say the allegations are a baseless political operation in the midterm cycle.

Beyond the scandal, Argentines’ view of the economy remains grim after economic activity contracted in May and June, while construction and manufacturing sectors both shrank in July, according to the most recent government data. More than half of survey respondents say Argentina’s economy is bad right now, and at least half believe it will get worse over the next six months. Only 16 percent see the economy as good for now and about a third see it improving over six months.

As for Kicillof, his popularity has steadily increased as Fernández de Kirchner remains under house arrest and Milei’s economic recovery falters alongside the bribery allegations surrounding Karina. About 39 percent of Argentines have a positive image of Kicillof in September, up from a low of 26 percent in May and above Fernández de Kirchner’s ranking, according to AtlasIntel.

However, Milei still remains Argentina’s most popular leader with a 44-percent positive image, though it’s faltered from 50 performed in May.

*AtlasIntel surveyed 5,315 people in Argentina between September 10-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point and a confidence level of 95 percent.