Electoral surprise: Survey places Javier Milei above Sergio Massa in run-off

Little more than two weeks away from the run-off, a new poll states that there is a “technical draw” between the two presidential candidates.

Unión por la patria candidate Sergio Massa and La Libertad Avanza hopeful Javier Milei are almost tied, the survey conducted by Inteligencia Analítica (IA) reveals, while putting the libertarian deputy as favourite to take the second round.

The surprise result by the polling firm – which is seen as close the ruling coalition candidate given it is headed by Marcelo Escolar and founded by Sebastián Galmarini, Massa’s brother-in-law – raised eyebrows among political analysts. 

It found that Milei is five points above Massa in run-off voting intentions but only if confirmed votes are included.

The study observes that the amount of so-called 'blank votes' that would be cast if the election were today would surpass 10 points with another 11 percent of undecided voters unsure which option to back.

The survey took into account 17,395 cumulative cases of people aged over 16 from across the nation, via mobile phones and with a percentage of landlines to optimise coverage, with a 95 percent level of reliability and a +/- 1.8 percent margin of error.

In the general election on October 22, the ruling party candidate finshed first with over 36 percent of the votes, while the libertarian economist came in second, with nearly 30 percent.

The IA study also analysed the transfer of votes from candidates left out of the fray, like opposition candidate Patricia Bullrich, who has already expressed her support for Milei.

When asked “If the presidential election were tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?” 41 percent of those surveyed chose the La Libertad Avanza option, while 37.2 percent opted for Unión por la Patria and MAssa. In addition, 10.7 percent chose “blank vote” and 11.1 percent “I do not know."

Projecting affirmative votes, Milei has more of an edge, since his voting intention is 52.5 percent, above Massa’s 47.5 percent.

Subsequently, when asked about the voting intention of each space’s ticket, Milei-Villarruel once again beat Massa-Rossi with a smaller difference and a potential “technical draw”: 43.3 percent to 43.1 percent. In this outlook, there are 6.3 percent of “blank” votes, and 7.3 percent marked “I do not know”.

When removing those two variables, the libertarian pairing grows to 50.6 percent and the Peronist leaders are left with 49.4 percent.

“As for voting intention by candidacies, there is a technical draw between Massa-Rossi and Milei-Villarruel. Blank votes go down to 7.5 percent. After including undecided voters, Milei-Villarruel have a 1-point advantage", the report explains.

It then elaborates: “Regarding vote transfers, the La Libertad Avanza ticket receives 70 percent of Bullrich’s votes and 50 percent of Rodríguez Larreta’s. Only 30 percent of the latter go to the Unión por la Patria candidates”. It adds: “A relevant portion of voters of both candidates of Juntos por el Cambio will cast a blank vote”.

Another section of the survey looks into the regional distribution of the votes. Here, Sergio Massa stays strong in Buenos Aires Province and is ahead in the North. Meanwhile, Javier Milei captures a large portion of the votes in the Centre and South of this country. “Both have very similar proportions of votes secured (78 percent “very sure” and nearly 13 percent “quite sure” each”, it concludes.

– TIMES/PERFIL