Make or break for President Milei as Argentina votes in key midterm election

Citizens across the nation will cast ballots later today in midterm elections that could determine whether President Javier Milei enters the second half of his term strengthened or weakened.

After weeks of currency turbulence, unprecedented financial support from the US government and corruption and drug-trafficking scandals, voters in Argentina will go to the polls to cast their verdict on the La Libertad Avanza leader’s first two years in office.

The 2025 midterm legislative elections will renew around half of the lower house Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate – a major opportunity for Milei, whose party remains in a small minority in both chambers, to expand his influence and curb the opposition’s blocking power.

La Libertad Avanza holds under 15 percent of seats in Congress – a figure he hopes to lift to at least a third, enough to protect his budget-slashing agenda from opposition roadblocks.

Milei, who celebrated his 55th birthday this week, has painted a stark scene of fierce polarisation and aligned himself with ex-president Mauricio Macri’s PRO party for the election.

Branding the midterms as a binary choice between “liberty or Kirchnerism,” Milei is hoping to retain the majority of voters who backed him in the 2023 run-off vote that clinched the Presidency.

For the self-described “anarcho-capitalist” economist, turned politician, the choice is clear, but it may not be so for citizens, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet.

For the opposition Peronist coalition, as well as the nation’s myriad other parties, tomorrow’s election is a chance for voters to put a brake on Milei’s reform drive and build support ahead of the 2027 election.

The world is watching – not least Washington. US President Donald Trump has taken unprecedented steps through the US Treasury to support his ally at the foot of the world. But will it pay off?

 

Chainsaw politics

Milei enacted sweeping budget cuts after taking office in December 2023 vowing to quell chronically high inflation and revive the sputtering economy. 

He promised shock therapy for Argentina's long-ailing economy, revving a chainsaw as a symbol of his plan to slash state spending.

Milei has cut tens of thousands of public-sector jobs, frozen public works, slashed spending on health, education and pensions and led a major deregulation drive.

His austerity-first approach – and a steep devaluation of the peso soon after he took office – plunged millions of Argentines deeper into poverty.

Government policies have since slowed triple-digit annual inflation to hikes that are now in the monthly single digits. Poverty rates have edged down and wages are regaining ground.

But the improvements have come at the cost of falling growth, consumption and manufacturing output. Many of Argentina's most vulnerable citizens are living on the breadline, struggling to get to the end of the month.

Economists warn that a heavily overvalued peso is damaging Argentina's competitiveness and that another devaluation may be on the cards, despite government denials.

In a recent interview, the President said he had "no intention of changing course until the end of my term."

"I am committed to the agenda of lowering taxes, deregulating and keeping the economy growing," he said.

"You cannot fix a hundred years of decline in 20 months," Milei retorted to his critics this week on the campaign trail.

 

Challenging target

Argentines will vote to renew around half of the 257-member lower house Chamber of Deputies and a third of 72 senators in today’s election.

Voters will elect 127 deputies, with the opposition Peronist coalition putting almost half of its seats on the line. The ruling party’s alliance with PRO is at risk of losing 30 percent of its seats.

The President’s approval numbers are down and his allies suffered a blistering rejection in bellwether regional elections in Buenos Aires Province in September.

A Milei-friendly majority looks out of reach, analysts say. This means La Libertad Avanza would continue to rely on legislative support from its centre-right allies.

With only six senators and 37 deputies before the vote, Milei has already seen several of his flagship policies blocked by Congress, including plans to privatise major state firms.

The most closely watched battle will take place in Buenos Aires Province, where Peronism needs to maintain its dominance and garner as wide as possible if it is to emerge strengthened.

Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof, who has emerged with the movement’s strongest hand in the absence of jailed ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, will need a strong result if he is to challenge Milei for the Presidency in the 2027 election.

One of the election’s major new variables is the emergence of a federal governors’ force called Provincias Unidas. 

Polling and seat projections suggest it could muster around 25 deputies, enough to tip tight legislative battles between the opposition Fuerza Patria (Peronist) coalition and Milei’s libertarian alliance.

 

Trump to the rescue?

With members of Milei's inner circle implicated in a variety of scandals, adding to his woes, the President this month received unprecedented backing from Trump, whose administration promised US$40 billion in assistance.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has extended a US$20-billion currency swap and intervened in markets to prop up the peso. 

But in the past month, Milei has had to be bailed out twice by the Trump administration to try to halt a run on the peso. The currency continues to lose ground, and monthly inflation is creeping back up.

A corruption scandal involving Milei’s sister and chief-of-staff, Karina Milei, and revelations that José Luis Espert, one of his top candidates in the midterms, received payments from a suspected drug-trafficker have further taken the shine off Milei's Presidency.

Trump raised the stakes last week, making clear the US aid came with conditions. Ahead of the election, the Republican warned that "if [Milei] loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina."

Mauricio Monge, Latin America economist at Oxford Economics, said Washington's aid "is not enough to counteract the growing likelihood that the election results will prevent further reforms" with voters and investors wary of Milei's plans.

"If history has taught us anything about Argentina, it's that previous bailouts, when political support wanes, have proven futile," he added.

 

– TIMES/AFP/NA