Argentine investment to spur corporate debt sales, JPMorgan says

Argentina’s largest companies are starting to revive long-term investment plans as the economy looks to emerge from recession, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The bank forecasts US$4 billion in corporate debt sales in 2025, a dip from this year’s levels. But Lisandro Miguens, head of Latin America debt capital markets at JPMorgan, sees a shift. More money is being raised for capital expenditures instead of refinancing maturities, he said, adding that corporate growth may push next year’s sales to as high as US$6 billion.

JPMorgan was the biggest underwriter of Argentine debt issuance this year according to Bloomberg League tables, managing about one-fourth of the US$5.5 billion in deals. 

Optimism over President Javier Milei’s austerity programme — which has balanced the budget and slowed inflation — has lifted Argentina assets. The yield on 85 percent of Argentine corporate international bonds with at least US$100 million outstanding has fallen below 10 percent. In August 2023, only 27 percent of the bonds were yielding single digits, according to Francisco Schumacher, a corporate strategist with BancTrust & Co. 

To be sure, the rally has yet to lure big foreign players. The share of offshore holders on local government bonds is down, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and statistics agency INDEC. The hesitancy also shows up in M&A activity: HSBC Holdings Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Xerox Holdings Corp. are among companies that sold their assets to local investors this year. 

Dollars remain “scarce” and fund managers are likely to favor issuances from companies that have easier access to greenbacks, Miguens said. And for the issuance trend to hold, it’s crucial that Milei holds on to popular support ahead of upcoming legislative elections next year, he added. 

“The market likes the direction of Argentina and the conviction of this administration, but at the end of the day, that will have to be validated by the people’s vote,” he said.