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OPINION AND ANALYSIS | 21-12-2024 05:07

Milei, Reagan and the 20% enemy rule

President Milei seems to be inverting Ronald Reagan’s equation – as in, disagree 20 percent of the time with me, and you are 80 percent my enemy.

President Javier Milei has said he is an admirer of late former British prime ministerMargaret Thatcher, but this week he received the Ronald Reagan Award from the Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) advocacy group. Interestingly, Milei has not yet lowered taxes significantly, except for the wealth tax on the rich. However, he claims he will do so once his chainsaw-led fiscal balance is consolidated. The ATR – and many Argentines – still trust his word.

Reagan is not someone Milei has mentioned much, despite his devotion to all things American. A recent biopic titled Reagan, directed by Sean McNamara, highlights the 40th US president’s drive to push for a reform agenda and fight Communism in the process — two things Milei seeks to emulate, even though there does not seem to be many Communists around these days. 

Reagan knew he needed allies for his job. One of the highlights of the movie is when, shortly after being inaugurated, he tells one of his aides his vision for engaging with other political leaders: “The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is an 80 percent friend, not a 20 percent enemy.” Notably, Reagan built a personal relationship and even a friendship with Thomas ‘Tip’ O’Neill, a Democrat who was the Speaker of the House of Representatives. They agreed that they were both of Irish descent.

Presidential legacies are generally built over time, and it is easier to appreciate the positives from a distance than it is in the heat of present-day events. Thirty years on, the way the Peronist Carlos Menem led a neoliberal reform similar to the one Milei is attempting now appears more palatable, with the Riojano president’s charm and showbiz personality softening its edges. Even Menem’s special friendship with actress and TV personality Amalia ‘Yuyito’ González makes Milei’s love affair with the same vedette today seem like a calculated attempt to revive some of that ’90s vibe.

But the President seems to be inverting Reagan’s equation: disagree 20 percent of the time with me, and you are 80 percent my enemy. To Milei’s detriment, he is not the only one following this pattern. The pointless conflict between him and his vice-president, Victoria Villarruel, is a perfect example of this. It is unclear what specific policy areas the two disagree on, but the relationship has deteriorated to the point where they are not on speaking terms. Their teams are even failing to communicate fluently enough to guarantee a smooth temporary transition of power when the President is — as he frequently is — abroad.

One does not have to look far back to find precedents for such crippling power struggles. In the 1990s, Menem clashed with his veep and then-Buenos Aires Province governor Eduardo Duhalde, in a brawl that cost them the 1999 election. More recently, Cristina Fernández Kirchner and Alberto Fernández (in that order, despite the official version of the presidential ticket they shared in 2019) could have resolved their 20 percent policy differences over utility rates, the IMF relationship, and fiscal policy with a half-hour coffee chat if they wanted to. Instead, they treated each other as 80 percent enemies, sending the Frente de Todos government they created down the drain in the process.

Politicians, like other human beings, have the capacity to learn from mistakes. Or don’t they? Judging by the brawl between Fernández de Kirchner and her former favourite protégé, Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof, learning is easier said than done. They likely agree on 100% of policy issues; their differences are purely political or even psychological, stemming from Fernández de Kirchner’s relationship with her son Máximo Kirchner, leader of the once-youth organisation La Cámpora. 

Don’t like Reagan? How about Einstein’s quote: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Ok, maybe Einstein never even said that, but who cares in this era of parallel social media realities?

One would assume the Mileis and the Kirchners agree on very little — not even 20 percent. And now they are sworn enemies. But what if the small fraction of things they agree on are the worst things possible, such as overlooking corruption, and abusing power for their own political interests? Having such frenemies would be very bad news for Argentina’s democracy.

Marcelo J. García

Marcelo J. García

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

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