Economic activity rebounds: March data shows 3.5% jump

Argentina’s economy rebounded much more than expected in March after slumping in February – a timely victory for President Javier Milei.

Economic activity rebounded, improving 3.5 percent in March from the previous month and 5.5 percent year-on-year, according to data from the INDEC national statistics bureau.

Both figures clearly outpaced the expectations of analysts. Experts consulted by the financial outlet Bloomberg had forecast a 0.8-percent bump from the previous month and a 2.1-percent improvement year-on-year.

President Milei cheered the news, writing on social media that "activity is flying!"

Fourteen of the 15 sectors of the economy expanded from the same month last year, according to INDEC.

Agriculture and mining once again drove the overall index. Together with the manufacturing sector, the sectors contributed 2.7 percentage points to the overall figure.

However, the best-performing sector year-on-year was fishing, which saw activity jump 30.9 percent. It was followed by agriculture, livestock farming, hunting and forestry (up 17.9 percent in the annual comparison), mining and quarrying (up 16.3 percent) and manufacturing (4.6 percent year-on-year).

Only public administration and defence, including compulsory social security schemes, recorded a negative reading year-on-year, falling 1.2 percent.
Activity in February had posted a 2.7 percent monthly contraction, the biggest slump since 2023 as retail and manufacturing continued to struggle. 

Monthly inflation, on the other hand, slowed in April for the first time in 11 months to 2.6 percent, led by higher fuel costs, followed by education.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in a radio interview this week that the economy should start to accelerate in May and June.

Economists surveyed by the Central Bank in April forecast a 2026 year-end inflation rate of 30.5 percent, revised up from 29.1 percent a month earlier, and growth of 2.8 percent, revised down from 3.3 percent the previous month.

– TIMES/NA/BLOOMBERG