IMF holds firm on Argentina growth forecast despite global uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its 5.5 percent growth projection for Argentina in 2025, despite global trade uncertainty.

The multilateral lender cited “positive data” seen in the early months of the year. It acknowledged that tighter fiscal policy had been offset by a rise in market confidence, allowing it to hold its forecast despite mounting global uncertainty.

“We still have that forecast basically because of the positive numbers we saw,” said Petya Koeva Brooks, a senior economist at the IMF, speaking at a press conference. “Despite the fiscal adjustment, there was an increase in confidence and that allows us to sustain the projection.”

However, Brooks warned that the outlook was subject to greater risk amid rising financial restrictions and price effects triggered by an increasingly unstable global context.

The comments were made during a press briefing at the IMF’s Spring Meetings in Washington, where economists warned of the growing impact of global trade tensions. 

In particular, they pointed to the disruptive effect of tariff measures introduced by US President Donald Trump, which are expected to slow global growth. 

The IMF downgraded its global forecast to 2.8 percent, urging governments to restore predictability in trade relations and ensure monetary policy remains flexible.

“All countries will be affected negatively by the uncertainty that cuts investment and production,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, although he noted that some emerging markets may benefit from a new trade alignment.

The IMF revised its estimate of a recession in the United States in 2025, increasing the probability from 25 percent last October to 40 percent in April.

Argentina’s forecast comes shortly after the IMF approved a new US$20-billion bailout for the country, replacing the previous failed programme. 

The deal includes fresh disbursements, extended repayment terms, and stricter policy benchmarks — including commitments on fiscal consolidation and inflation control. 

The agreement was endorsed by the IMF board in March following intense negotiations and is seen as a crucial step for stabilising Argentina’s volatile economy and restoring international credibility.

At an event on the sidelines of the institution's Washington meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva expressed confidence that Argentina is on the road to recovery.

“What will change the future of Argentina is sticking to the reforms and creating confidence that this time is different,” Georgieva stated at a meeting of global parliamentarians in Washington.

Praising attempts to lower inflation, Georgieva said that Argentina needed to build credibility and “create the sense of confidence that this time is different, and stay the course.”

The IMF chief said that could bring in wealth outside the banking system held informally or overseas by Argentines.

“I was told — I don’t know if it’s true — that there’s more than US$200 billion under the mattress and God knows where else. If that money were invested in Argentina, just imagine what that country would be,” the IMF chief said at the event.
 

– TIMES/NA/PERFIL