After 20 years of socialism, Bolivia set for change with right-wing presidential run-off

Bolivia will choose between two right-wing figures in presidential elections Sunday, ending two decades of socialist rule that has left the beleaguered South American nation deep in the red.

With no dollars, no fuel, and annual inflation nearing 25 percent, struggle-weary voters flatly rejected the Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement Toward Socialism, MAS) party founded by former president Evo Morales, in a first electoral round in August.

On Sunday they will elect one of two die-hard MAS opponents in the hopes of change: Senator Rodrigo Paz or former president Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga.

Either way, the country will bring to an end an economic experiment marked by initial prosperity funded by Morales's nationalization of oil and gas, followed by critical shortages of fuel and foreign currency under incumbent Luis Arce.

Bolivia, a lithium-rich country of 11.3 million people, is facing its worst economic crisis in four decades, with long queues a common sight at gas stations or at stores carrying subsidised rice and oil.

"There is desperation; most people live day to day," said Pamela Roque, a trained 29-year-old surgical technician who is considering emigrating due to a lack of jobs. "Things are not going to go well for us here." 

Under Morales, the country's first Indigenous president, Bolivia posted South America's fastest economic growth and slashed poverty and unemployment, as government revenue from nationalised hydrocarbons skyrocketed. It invested heavily in social programmes.

But with insufficient investment in the sector, oil production under Morales ally-turned-rival Luis Arce plummeted and Bolivia almost depleted its dollar reserves to sustain a universal fuel subsidy policy. 

Arce leaves office on November 8 after serving a single presidential term from 2020. Bolivia's Constitution allows for two terms, but Arce did not seek re-election.

 

'Can't have both'

With 44.9 percent of stated voter intention, 65-year-old Quiroga has a narrow lead over Paz, 58, who enjoys 36.5 percent support, according to a survey by Ipsos-Ciesmori. 

A former vice-president under Hugo Banzer, Quiroga served a brief stint as president in 2001 and 2002 when the incumbent fell ill.

The winner will face an uphill task, inheriting an economy in recession, according to the World Bank.

"With either of the two, if quick solutions are not provided, the social cost and the risk of protests will be high," said political scientist Ana Lucía Velasco.

Quiroga, a US-trained engineer who leads the centre-right coalition LIBRE – Libertad y Democracia, commonly known as Libre, has proposed a US$12-billion injection in the economy with international loans, and to bolster foreign investment.

For rival Paz, an economist and the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), the solution lies in balancing the budget before taking on more loans.

Bolivia's external debt is almost a third of GDP.

Paz, who leads the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (Christian Democratic Party, PDC), has promised to cut taxes, eliminate import duties and ensure "capitalism for all, not just for a few," while ruling out strict austerity measures.

Both candidates propose maintaining fuel subsidies only for public transportation and vulnerable economic sectors, as well as maintaining social programs and bonuses. 

But Velasco argues that "you can't have both things" – maintaining subsidies while also stabilizing the economy.

"People have their hopes pinned on electoral promises that are very difficult, perhaps impossible, to fulfill," she told AFP.

Bolivian voter Jorge Serrano, a 73-year-old retired builder, said she didn't trust either of the candidates.

"What can they give me? The pension I have is not enough for anything," Serrano said. 

Bolivia's old-age pension is just over US$100 per month.

 

Shadow of Morales

Paz's Christian Democratic Party has the highest number of lawmakers in parliament, but no majority. Quiroga's alliance is the second-biggest force.

Outside of Congress, both would face stiff opposition from Morales who remains popular, especially among Indigenous voters, but is constitutionally barred from seeking another term.

Morales, who is the target of an arrest warrant for human trafficking over an alleged sexual relationship with a minor – an accusation he denies – has vowed mass protests if the right returns to power.

"Together with the people we will take the fight to the streets," he said in August.

 

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The two right-wing candidates dueling for Bolivia's top job

An ex-president and a senator will go head-to-head in Bolivia's presidential run-off Sunday.

Senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party came from behind to take the top spot with 32 percent of votes cast in a first round in August, but has since fallen behind ex-president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga of the Libre alliance in stated voter intention.

Here is a look at the two candidates:

 

Paz: 'Capitalism for all'

The 58-year-old son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993) was born in Spain, where his family fled successive military dictatorships and where he spent his early years in exile.

The heir of a political dynasty, he has been a mayor, a congressman and now serves as the senator for Tarija, an oil- and gas-rich department where his family hails from. The candidate's lineage also includes great-uncle Víctor Paz Estenssoro, a leftist four-time president.

In interviews with AFP, voters described Paz as untainted by association with either the widely discredited socialists in power for the last 20 years, or the traditional right represented by Quiroga.

His opponents, however, say Paz has the backing of the MAS party created by leftist firebrand Evo Morales and blamed by many for the country's economic woes.

In an election campaign marked by mud-slinging and disinformation, Paz promised to cut taxes, eliminate all import duties and ensure "capitalism for all, not just for a few." He has also advocated a large degree of decentralisation.

Part of his appeal has been attributed to his running-mate, highly popular former police captain Edmand Lara, known for his broadsides against corruption.

Critics say Paz is trying to be everything for everyone.

 

Quiroga: 'small state' advocate

A US-trained engineer from the central city of Cochabamba, Quiroga has worked at IBM, as well as major Bolivian banking and mining firms in between stints in politics. He has also represented Bolivia at the IMF and the World Bank.

Quiroga served as vice-president under Hugo Banzer. When the incumbent stepped down in 2001 due to cancer, Quiroga served out the remaining 12 months of his term. The blunt-spoken 65-year-old neoliberal with a knack for snappy soundbites is a favourite of wealthier Bolivians of European descent.

"I think this 'Tuto' has something. He's an economist, he's a businessman. But he has a way with people," said Paul Chacón Díaz, a 56-year-old entrepreneur.

Quiroga has adopted his nickname "Tuto" as part of his legal identity. An amateur mountaineer and avid runner, he lost out to socialist candidates in presidential elections in 2005 and 2014. He also ran in 2020, but dropped out at the last minute because of his poor standing in polls.

He vowed to go further than other hopefuls in liberalising the economy after what he calls "20 years of suffering, of pain, of shame, of corruption" under the leftist MAS party founded by Morales. Insisting he is "fully committed to the fight for democracy" at home and abroad, Quiroga has said he would break off ties with authoritarian leftist governments in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Campaign team members have described Quiroga as hard-working and results-driven. But detractors view him as synonymous with Bolivia's racial divisions. 

"The extreme right for me is Tuto, because he discriminates against the collas" as Bolivia's Indigenous Aymaras are called, said Daniel López, a 43-year-old shoe shiner in La Paz.