Flavio Bolsonaro inches ahead of President Lula in Brazil election poll

Flavio Bolsonaro edged ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the run-up to October’s election, with a new poll showing for the first time that the right-wing senator is leading the race.

Flavio, the 44-year-old son of of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, would take 47.6 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 46.6 percent in a run-off scenario, according to the survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published Wednesday. The challenger’s lead fell within the poll’s one percentage-point margin of error.

The data continues a turnaround for Flavio, who trailed by 12 points when he launched his campaign in December. The senator from Rio de Janeiro took the reins of Brazil’s conservative movement after his father was convicted of attempting a coup following his narrow loss to Lula in 2022.

At the same time, the 80-year-old leftist leader’s popularity has suffered as the economy cools off and opponents heighten their attacks as campaign season gets underway. 

Lula is now rushing to contain economic fallout from rising oil prices due to US war in Iran. He is also attempting to distance himself from institutions, including Brazil's Supreme Court, that have been wrapped into a scandal surrounding Banco Master SA, a bank has faced deepening fraud allegations since its collapse last year. 

The president’s disapproval rating climbed 2 percentage points in March to its highest level in nearly a year – 54 percent – compared to the 46 percent of respondents who now approve of Lula, according to the poll.

AtlasIntel interviewed 5,028 Brazilians on March 18 to 23.