Too stable? Uruguay's model election masks problems

Nestled between Brazil, where supporters of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro attacked federal buildings after his election ouster, and Argentina, where opposition leaders calls libertarian leader Javier Milei a "little dictator," is a country where defeated presidential candidates rush to congratulate and even "hug" the victor.

Welcome to Uruguay, a beacon of stability on a continent rocked by gang violence and political instability, where former history teacher Yamandú Orsi was elected president Sunday on a promise not to rock the boat.

The second and final round of Uruguay's presidential election, in which Orsi won back the presidency for the left after five years of centre-right rule, was hailed as proof of the enduring power of the country's consensus-driven political culture.

Rivals embrace

Election day passed off peacefully, with 90 percent of voters in the country of 3.4 million casting a ballot, and the center-right candidate Álvaro Delgado was gracious in defeat.

Within minutes of the results being announced, Delgado sent Orsi a "big hug and a greeting."

Analysts said the uneventful nature of the election and polite rhetoric was testament to the moderation that characterises politics in a country with three times as many cows as people.

"It is very difficult today, with so much polarisation and such strong divisions, to create spaces for dialogue and build a shared vision of the state. Uruguay has achieved that," said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the Wilson Center, a US think tank.

Adolfo Garce, a political scientist at the University of the Republic in Uruguay's capital Montevideo attributed the lack of deep divisions to the "trauma of the dictatorship."

Haunted by dictatorship

From 1973 to 1985, Uruguay was run by a brutal military-led regime, one of a handful that sowed terror in the southern part of South America in the 1970s and 1980s. Thousands of people were jailed, tortured or killed.

Garce said Uruguayans were still scarred by memories of the years preceding the dictatorship, which was marked by "a climate of polarisation that did us a lot of harm and that culminated in a military coup."

He added that the "fairly classic bipartisan logic" that had dominated politics since the return to democracy was a further stabilising factor.

Power alternates between two large blocs – the conservative Coalición Republicana coalition dominated by the Partido Nacional of outgoing President Luis Lacalle Pou, and the leftist Frente Amplio.

With both camps enjoying similar levels of support, there is no incentive for either to develop "extreme positions" or "demagogic promises," Garce added.

For Daniel Chasquetti, a political science professor who also lectures at the Universidad de la República in Montevideo, said Uruguay "has charted the same course more or less for 20, 25 years." 

"He [Orsi] may go a little further to the left, but I don't think there will be a significant change."

'Worrying lack of urgency'

And yet underneath the surface, Uruguay faces a raft of issues, including growing disenchantment with the political system.

A 2023 Latinobarómetro poll showed the percentage of Uruguayans who were satisfied with democracy falling nine points in three years to 59 percent.

Britain's The Economist magazine this week flagged what it called "a worrying lack of urgency about a slew of entrenched problems," including slowed economic growth, rising inequality and stubbornly high poverty levels.

"Most alarming" for the magazine, however, was Uruguay's worsening security situation linked to the country's emergence as a cocaine-trafficking hub.

The murder rate in 2023 stood at over 11 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, more than double that of Chile.

Calling on Uruguay's parties to offer more than "more-of-the-same certainty," The Economist wrote: "Uruguayan politicians' preference for comparing Uruguay with its troubled region, rather than the rich world, is a concession to mediocrity."