New Congress maths – can Milei allow himself the luxury of not negotiating?

Like never before since he took office, in the last few days Argentina’s Congress has only been delivering good news to Javier Milei.

Not because of any one vote in particular but because of the breakdown in both chambers. Last Wednesday the 127 new deputies winning seats in the last midterms were sworn-in with a new feature – Milei now enjoys the first minority of 95 libertarians, thanks to the last-minute entry of legislators once responding to Mauricio Macri.

Meanwhile, the Fuerza Patria caucus suffering the recent exodus of three Catamarca deputies is left in second place at 94.

A few days previously on November 28, 23 new senators – minus the cancelled Lorena Villaverde (La Libertad Avanza), who can still return to her lower house seat – were sworn-in and the maths here also smiles on the government, which has become the second minority with 19 seats of its own. 

To place that in perspective, it only had seven senators up until now. And going back a bit further to 2021 when Milei erupted into politics, he only had two deputies: himself and Victoria Villarruel.

The new arithmetic of Congress is the consequence of an election with a surprise result which took the form of a plebiscite – over 40 percent nationwide for La Libertad Avanza and an upset triumph in Buenos Aires Province, which gives the government breathing-room to fortify its bills, decrees and vetoes. 

The ruling party still lacks quorum, it is true, but it has two caucuses whose growth is impressive, taking into account from where it started.

Milei is emboldened. His worst mistake, nevertheless, would be to convince himself that he no longer needs to negotiate anything with anybody. 

The Senate is the last obstacle, in that aspect. The 28 senators which the Peronists still have – although six less than before the midterms – are the first minority and will block approval of libertarian initiatives without the necessary consensus with his PRO partners or even opposition governors, who manage those votes by remote control from their provinces. 

Will the government have to update the money payments it has been denying those inland bosses if it seeks to impose its legislative agenda?

In politics, as Milei is learning, everything has to do with everything.