Milei's affinity with Trump – what a Republican win in US election would mean for Argentina

The world will be glued to the elections in the United States on Tuesday as the world's leading global power goes to the polls. According to the latest polls, the race technically tied between the candidates of the Republican and Democratic parties.

Javier Milei’s Argentina is no stranger to tight electoral processes and will be closely watching the vote in its third-largest trading partner. Although the national government’s “strategic alignment” with Washington will continue regardless of whoever governs, the affinity expressed by the President for Republican leader Donald Trump raises questions about the bilateral relationship, especially if Democrat Kamala Harris wins on November 5.

Trump's relationship with Macri and Milei

Trump visited Buenos Aires in 2018 when Mauricio Macri was in office. During his first term, the former US president made frequent references to Argentina's economic situation, showing interest in supporting his new ally in the southern hemisphere. 

At the time, Argentina’s government was negotiating a US$44-billion loan (originally US$57 billion) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

Since then Macri and Trump have maintained a friendly relationship and met again in 2022 at the tycoon's residence in Florida, when they discussed “global reality and the relationship between the two countries.” 

Macri's rapport with Trump has been continued by his new ally from La Libertad Avanza. Before assuming the presidency, Javier Milei expressed strong affinity with the former US president. Both leaders, although with ideological differences, shared an anti-establishment rhetoric that resonated in both their respective campaigns.

Since coming to power, Milei has voiced his clear alignment with the characteristic MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda used by Trump's campaign team. The President even adapted it into his own campaign slogan: “Let's make Argentina great again.” Trump, for his part, has praised Milei's “fantastic work,” austerity and lowering of inflation, according to statements given to US media outlets.

The economic wing of Milei’s government, headed by Luis Caputo, is looking closely at the US elections. Argentina would like to renegotiate its deal with the IMF. It hopes, if Trump wins, that it will be able to unlock between US$10 billion and US$15 billion, with a view to lifting capital controls, should the Republican be sworn-in as POTUS in January 2025.

Beyond Milei's preference for the US tycoon, the two leaders met face-to-face this year back in February during an event organised by the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Argentina’s head of state effusively hugged Trump, whom he called “a great president.”

The encounter was interpreted by onlookers as an attempt by Milei to align himself with the global “anti-woke” phenomenon. He has also shared the stage with figures such as El Salvador President Nayib Bukele and Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain's far-right Vox party, reinforcing his right-wing image on the international stage.

Milei's wink to Trump

A little under a year into the libertarian government, Argentina's foreign policy has been shaped by the relationship with the United States. Milei has expressed his unconditional alignment with it and Israel. He demonstrated this in discourse and through state policies, such as in the purchase of US-made F16 fighter jets, which won out over the Sino-Pakistani JF Thunder.

The elections in the United States have a particular tinge for Argentina. The Milei administration will await the results before appointing a new ambassador after the departure of Gerardo Werthein, who is Diana Mondino's new replacement at the Foreign Ministry.

Milei's government has been generally cautious about the electoral race, despite a suggestive photo recently published on X and retweeted by Javier Milei on October 28. The image, posted by libertarian lawmaker Agustín Romo, shows a group of university students pictured with top presidential advisor Santiago Caputo. On the table, clearly visible and placed, there is a cap reading the inscription ‘Trump 2024, Make America Great Again.’

Beyond social media posts and who wins next Tuesday in the United States, bilateral ties will be a decisive factor for Argentina's future. While it could be expected that the political harmony between Milei and Trump could facilitate a stronger alignment between Buenos Aires and Washington, the truth is that it will be necessary to see how Trump's protectionist vision will affect relations with every nation. The candidate has said that if he returns to the White House, there will be a 10-percent increase tariff on all imports, a move which would have repercussions throughout the world and for in Argentina in particular.

The geopolitical perspective

Discursive differences regarding the international panorama is another point to bear in mind in the event that the Republican wins the presidency. 

Trump is a fierce critic of the war in Ukraine and has suggested that, if he had been in power, the conflict would not have occurred. Moreover, his overt sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his recent criticism of Ukraine's Volodymir Zelensky suggests that, should he win the White House, he could force through a change in Washington’s stance on the conflict. 

Trump's logic, meanwhile, could impact on the way Milei looks at the world amid his unrestricted alignment with “Western values,” leading him to adopt a position of equidistance between Washington-Brussels and Moscow. This approach has also resonated with other leaders with whom Milei sympathises, such as Viktor Orban and Giorgia Meloni.

Argentina’s president, in expressing his readiness to send aid to Ukraine and initiating the process for Argentina's NATO membership, could find himself in a potentially awkward position should Trump win on the geopolitical stage. The Republican candidate's criticism of the partners of the NATO transatlantic military alliance, which was harshly questioned by US President Joe Biden himself and European leaders, would also affect things.

Milei's relationship with China could also arouse interest in the United States. The President has softened his rhetoric towards Argentina's top trading partner during his search for funding. A trip to China in January next year is anticipated and could be key to strengthening those ties, reflecting Milei's need to diversify sources of economic support for his government. Trump’s reaction, should he win, could complicate things.