All the polling for Buenos Aires City shows the Peronist ticket headed by Leandro Santoro in first place. But the lawmaker has not seen a drastic surge in popularity – he is benefitting from division in the right-wing electoral offering. Manuel Adorni, Silvia Lospennato, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Ramiro Marra are all fishing in the same pond.
The results in the upcoming Buenos Aires City elections on May 18 will set the pace for the electoral year: beyond the 30 seats at stake in the City Legislature, the elections will put Presidential Chief-of-Staff Karina Milei’s strategy to the test.
Polls are only snapshots and figures may shift, but they serve as a useful thermometer. Different studies show clear points of agreement. In early April, for instance, Proyección Consultores surveyed voting intentions, with Santoro coming first on 23.1 points. In the last week of the month, CB Consultora measured him at 28 points.
Differences between one poll and another can be explained by the days separating them or by methodology. But they agree on the conclusion — Santoro, running under the Es ahora Buenos Aires banner, has consolidated the Peronist vote. Neither Alejandro Kim (Principios y Valores), nor Juan Manuel Abal Medina (Seamos Libres), are serious contenders.
Again, this doesn’t mean a shift in image for Santoro. “I think he can win, but with the same votes he has always had. In the 2021 elections he got 26 points, and in 2023, when he ran for head of government, 32. He is within those margins,” said Cristian Butié of CB Consultora in an interview with Perfil.
The key to a Peronist potential success in the City lies in the fragmentation of the right-wing vote, which had historically been concentrated on Mauricio Macri’s PRO party and accounted for about 60 percent of the electorate.
The main fault line is the split between Macrismo and President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza, with Lospennato and Adorni heading up the respective lists.
There have also been splits within these sectors too: former City mayor Rodríguez Larreta is seeking to challenge PRO with Volvamos Buenos Aires, while Marra is challenging the libertarians from with a run for Ucedé.
Strategies and casualties
In early April polling, Proyección Consultores placed Adorni in second with 19.5 points, Lospennato third with 17.1, Rodríguez Larreta fourth with 6.1, and Marra fifth with 4.2.
CB Consultora conducted two studies — one at the time candidate lists were submitted, and another at the end of April. In the latter, Adorni and Lospennato were tied for second place, both with 20 points. Rodríguez Larreta followed with 10 points, and Marra with eight.
“When we first started measuring, Lospennato had a 40-percent ‘unawareness rate.’ It’s true she had a relatively good net positive image, but many people didn’t know who she was,” explained Butié. “She started out with 13 points and now she’s at 20. There’s an upward trend, and that’s the big question in the City — who pushes who into third place.”
Buenos Aires City is the epicentre of the conflict between PRO and the ruling La Libertad Avanza party. Despite their good rapport in the National Congress, in the City the two forces are at odds and never even came close to forging an alliance.
Electoral strategy for the ruling party has been led by Javier Milei’s sister, Karina. The presidential chief-of-staff, along with Martín Menem and Eduardo ‘Lule’ Menem, was responsible for setting up La Libertad Avanza’s party structures across the country. Although in some districts they have managed to work side by side with figures from PRO, the order was clear: “Without the Macris,” referring to Mauricio and Jorge.
The results from the Santa Fe Province elections — the first on the electoral calendar a few weeks ago — were not very encouraging for the libertarians. Their candidate, deputy Nicolás Mayoraz, finished third. Milei’s opponents say this result is the first hint that their strategy may not be working.
Nonetheless, for the libertarians, it is the only viable move if they are to establish themselves as the sole alternative to Peronism nationwide. La Libertad Avanza’s refusal to form an alliance with PRO in Buenos Aires City shows that their goal is not necessarily to win the elections but rather to wrest control of the capital away from the Macris.
Both camps, moreover, go into the race with their own wounded. Despite having served two terms as City mayor, Rodríguez Larreta risks being pushed into a distant fourth place. By doing so, he will be hurting his former political boss: his votes could very well have gone to Lospennato. A similar situation is unfolding with Marra, who was expelled from La Libertad Avanza, even though he could have been the party’s “natural” candidate in the capital.
“If Lospennato’s [growth] trend continues and Adorni falls to third place, the first person who will have to admit there is a problem is Karina,” Butié reflected.
The ruling party knows this — it is no coincidence that all efforts are now focused on boosting the presidential spokesman’s candidacy, with President Milei himself now personally involved in the campaign.
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