With just over a week to go until the nation's capital goes to the ballot box for midterm elections, fresh polling shows a clear lead for top Peronist hopeful Leandro Santoro over his libertarian and right-wing rivals.
Santoro's lead – at least six points, according to polls by the Tendencias and Circuitos consultancy firms – is a consequence of fragmentation in the lead-up to the May 18 elections for the Buenos Aires City Legislature.
Splits across the right and libertarian spectrum have weakened both La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and PRO, while Peronism faces milder internal competition. A total of 17 lists are competing for 30 legislative seats, creating complications for voters and candidates alike.
On the right, the expulsion of Ramiro Marra from La Libertad Avanza, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s exit from PRO and the ruling party’s decision to field its own candidate against sitting City Mayor Jorge Macri’s list have eroded cohesion and voter concentration.
Meanwhile, the Peronist field – led by Santoro of Es Ahora Buenos Aires (the Unión por la Patria coalition is not represented) – is also divided, though less sharply, with additional challenges from former Cabinet chief Juan Manuel Abal Medina (Seamos Libres) and Argentine-Korean entrepreneur Alejandro Kim (Principios y Valores).
Both polls confirm the City’s fragmented political landscape, though both were consistent in their projections: Santoro in first place, with a tight face-off behind between LLA's Manuel Adorni and PRO’s Silvia Lospennato.
The Tendencias survey, carried out online between April 18 and 23 among 2,225 City residents, gives Santoro 28 percent of voting intentions. Adorni follows with 22.5 percent, with Lospennato on 20.8 percent. The remaining candidates trail further behind: Rodríguez Larreta (Volvamos Buenos Aires) at just 5.2 percent, Marra (UCeDé) at 4.7 percent, Vanina Biasi (Frente de Izquierda) with 4.5 percent, Kim at 3.7 percent and Unión Cívica Radical-Evolución candidate Lula Levy at 3.4 percent.
That survey also gauged public sentiment toward national and local leaders. President Javier Milei's government holds a 32 percent positive image and a 40 percent negative one, according to the poll.
Locally, Mayor Jorge Macri fares even worse – only 15 percent view his administration positively, while 42 percent express a negative opinion. Economic concerns dominate the agenda, with low incomes (24.4 percent) and poverty (23.6 percent) topping the list of priorities.
The second poll, conducted by Circuitos between May 2 and 4 via 1,081 telephone interviews, paints a similar picture. Santoro leads with 24.3 percent, followed by Adorni at 18.3 percent and Lospennato’s 20.7 percent.
Although Adorni and Marra (who polled 12.2 percent) are running separately, their combined total of 30.5 percent would place them ahead of a unified PRO or Peronist ticket, according to the poll, highlighting the cost of ejecting one of LLA’s co-founders from his own space.
Circuitos’ data suggests that a united Peronist front – combining Santoro’s 24.3 percent with Kim’s 3.6 percent and Abal Medina’s 1.8 percent – would total 29.7 percent. A similar scenario for PRO would have yielded 28.5 percent, merging Lospennato’s 20.7 percent with Rodríguez Larreta’s 7.5 percent.
Despite the crowded field, the race has consolidated around three main contenders – Santoro in the lead, with Adorni and Lospennato battling closely for second place.
With just over a week to go, the polls indicate that the less-favoured candidates will find it hard to turn around the race.
– TIMES/NA/PERFIL
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