Raúl Jalil is at the centre of national political debate. After a series of private meetings with government officials and signs of an approach to the Casa Rosada, the Catamarca Province governor is on the way to withdrawing the four deputies answering to him from the Unión por la Patria caucus in the lower house and forming his own bench starting in December.
The move, as Perfil learnt from parliamentary sources, might be announced by the end of the month and would directly modify the balance of power in the Chamber of Deputies, with La Libertad Avanza on the verge of being the first minority in the lower house.
The decision stems from an election context which Jalil read as a validation of his strategy. While the Peronist seal and brand was defeated in 13 provinces, in Catamarca the Fuerza Patria ticket prevailed by 12 points over the ruling La Libertad Avanza party and its allies. Sources close to the provincial leader consider that the result enables a more autonomous approach and, especially, greater capacity for negotiation with President Javier Milei’s government.
Members of the Unión por la Patria caucus may see the play as inevitable. Catamarca deputies-elect Fernando Monguillot and Claudia Palladino, together with the lawmakers still in office, Fernanda Ávila and Sebastián Nóblega, may be part of Jalil’s new bench. The exit of Silvana Ginocchio (the governor’s wife), who will not renew her seat, had triggered alarms in Peronist circles, where for weeks now it had been noticed that Jalil was shopping around for new alliances.
Germán Martínez, chief of the UxP caucus, will attempt to retain the Catamarca four and prevent a greater split. The political weight of Lucía Corpacci, a senator and key Peronist figure in the northwestern province, was also activated as she applies pressure from the provincial legislature. Still, in the national legislature, they are taking it for granted that the governor has made his decision and that leeway for negotiation is minimal.
In parallel, Jalil has gone deep into his connections with the government. He was one of the first governors called to Casa Rosada after the October midterm elections and held meetings with Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni, Interior Minister Diego Santilli and, very recently, with top presidential advisor Santiago Caputo. Within the ruling party, they interpret that meeting as having tidied up the relationship and accelerated the reconfiguration of the Catamarca bloc.
The topics under discussion are specific. Catamarca is willing to accompany the 2026 Budget with votes and the so-called “employment modernisation” push, identified by the Executive Branch as a priority. On the other hand, there may not be an agreement to reform Argentina’s Criminal Code. Items being negotiated also include the future of YMAD (Yacimientos Mineros Aguas de Dionisio), the mining firm Milei had included in the original list of planned privatisations. Its transfer to provincial control is a key objective for Jalil.
The mining agenda works as an additional vector for being in tune. The governor believes opportunities may open up in key sectors after a trade agreement with the United States is sealed, especially energy transition and technological development.
Catamarca’s move reconfigures the count in the lower house. With the exit of the four legislators answering to Jalil, Unión por la Patria would be left with 92 deputies and would lose its status as first minority. La Libertad Avanza, adding the arrival of Patricia Bullrich’s sector of lawmakers and holding talks with “libertarian Radicals” and other provincial allies, would also reach 92 seats.
The virtual tie might be broken if the replacement of Silvia Lospennato is indeed finalised, while she assesses whether to take on her seat in the Buenos Aires City Legislature. Her spot in the Chamber of Deputies would be filled by Lorena Petrovich, a leader close to Bullrich, say insiders. According to estimates from the Lower House Speaker’s Office, that incorporation would leave the ruling party with 93 deputies – one more than Peronism.
Ultimately, the Catamarca mini-bloc will not stand alone. Jalil is exploring coordination with other governors seeking greater autonomy with a capacity for negotiation, such as Gustavo Sáenz in Salta, Carlos Rovira in Misiones, Osvaldo Jaldo in Tucumán, Rolando Figueroa in Neuquén and Alfredo Cornejo’s sector in Mendoza. There are also contacts with the combined spaces from the Provincias Unidas centrist force, which is interested in playing independently against the national blocs.
The federal ecosystem may prove decisive when the extraordinary sessions of Congress start. The distribution of strategic committee chairs and the approval of the 2026 Budget all depend on the balance between caucuses, specific alliances and negotiations province by province. On that front, Jalil seeks to position Catamarca as a key player and capitalise on its election result with his own bench, in line with his priorities and with a direct relationship with Casa Rosada.
With a Congress in process of being reconfigured, the decision by the Catamarca leader anticipates a new scene: a ruling party progressing in the dispute for the first minority, even more fragmentation for Peronism and a federal caucus emerging again as the arbiter for the big votes in the legislative summer.
Comments