Argentina’s government is evaluating whether to negotiate a loan with two investment funds or seek additional financing from the International Monetary Fund in order to pave the way toward lifting currency and capital controls in the coming months, according to a senior government official.
The government would pursue private financing or fresh IMF funding, but not both, and aims to have it by February or March, according to the official, who asked not to be named discussing internal strategy. The official declined to name the two investment funds negotiating with Argentina, or how much would be loaned.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry, Central Bank and the press office of President Javier Milei didn’t respond to a request for comment outside business hours early Friday. The IMF didn’t respond to a request for comment.
In a speech last month, Milei talked about a “definitive solution” to ending Argentina’s currency and capital controls that would include a new IMF deal or “an agreement with private investors.” Milei vowed to lift the controls this year in his December speech, but didn’t provide more details about specific timing of the financing or number of private funds potentially involved.
The IMF confirmed last month that Argentina is seeking a new agreement to succeed its US$44-billion deal. Economy Minister Luis Caputo also said he is seeking to close an IMF deal within the first four months of this year, adding that he hoped it includes fresh funding without providing a figure.
Argentina is attempting to secure its third IMF deal since 2018, but it remains unclear whether the Washington-based lender would provide additional financing beyond the US$44 billion. A year ago, officials suggested as much as US$15 billion in additional IMF money would be needed to lift the scaffolding of controls, but they haven’t referenced the figure in several months.
While the ultimate aim of the funding would be to speed up Argentina’s path toward eliminating its currency restrictions, the money would technically be used for the nation’s Treasury to pay down billions in debts it has with the Central Bank.
That would help clean up the monetary authority’s balance sheet and help restore its so-called net reserves, the difference between its cash on hand and outstanding liabilities. Currently, the Central Bank has negative net reserves, which impedes officials from lifting the controls because it would leave the peso exposed to a currency sell-off.
The government’s decision over the IMF funds or loan from investment funds runs parallel to separate negotiations policymakers are having with banks for a repurchase agreement, or repo, that would be at least US$2.7 billion over three years. The official added that the repo is now being considered to make payments due to Argentina’s bondholders in July rather than January since the monetary authority already has the money to make about US$4.7 billion of capital and interest payments due this month.
The various negotiations come against the backdrop of Argentina emerging from a brutal recession that saw more than half the country pushed into poverty in the first six months of 2024. More recently, growth has picked up, wages are recovering and Argentines are depositing billions into the banking system in a sign of confidence.
Economists expect South America’s second largest economy to grow more than four percent this year while exiting triple-digit inflation that’s hampered activity for more than year.
by Ignacio Olivera Doll & Manuela Tobias, Bloomberg
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