Latin Americans split on retaliation as Trump’s tariffs loom

Latin Americans are broadly worried about US tariffs but have mixed feelings about how their leaders should respond to the barrage of trade levies Donald Trump is poised to unveil this week.

Half of Mexicans, Argentines and Brazilians want their governments to retaliate to Trump’s tariffs, with slightly smaller shares of Colombians and Chileans saying the same, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published Tuesday.

But while at least a third of respondents in each nation say that should involve higher tariffs on US goods, many prefer that their countries seek to bolster trade ties with US rivals like China or pursue other options instead.

Trump’s tariff threats have already caused upheaval in Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum has successfully warded off broad levies on her nation’s goods with a cautious approach that has prioritised negotiations over harsh retaliation. It’s a strategy Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and others have mimicked in hopes of brokering deals on US levies on steel and aluminium.

Trump’s biggest barrage is expected to come Wednesday, when he has promised to lay out reciprocal tariffs on countries that charge levies on US goods — a pledge that has raised alarm in corners of highly-protectionist Latin America.

Roughly three-quarters of Mexicans, Chileans and Colombians say they see tariffs as a major concern, while about two-thirds or more expect substantial economic impacts, the poll found. About 40 percent in each nation say their top choice is retaliatory levies on US goods in response. But a third of Chileans and around 40 percent of Mexicans and Colombians say bolstering trade ties with China and other countries is a better way to go.

Brazilians are divided on nearly every aspect of the trade upheaval, with 47 percent rating tariffs as a major concern while 53 percent say they aren’t. Half say they want Lula’s government to retaliate, but they are equally divided between new tariffs on US goods and bolstered ties to US rivals, with 45 percent choosing each.

Argentines are far more likely to support aggressive confrontation if their nation chooses to respond: 59 percent say they’d want higher tariffs on US products, while another 23 percent favour new restrictions on investments from Trump’s nation.

That could create a potential challenge for libertarian President Javier Milei, who has built a close relationship with Trump and wants to strike a free-trade deal with the United States.

Latin American leaders have so far avoided taking aggressive retaliatory steps of the sort Canada wielded in response to Trump’s initial round of tariffs. The exception is Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, whose confrontation with the US president over deportation flights led to steep tariff threats and backfired severely with the nation’s voters.

Sheinbaum, by contrast, has seen her approval rating rise to 85 percent among Mexicans as she wins international plaudits for her handling of Trump. She plans to outline her nation’s response to the latest round of levies only after Trump announces them, holding firm to the “cool-headed” approach that has so far allowed Mexico to avoid the bulk of the tariffs he’s threatened to impose.

AtlasIntel surveyed 1,883 people in Argentina, 4,659 people in Brazil, 2,463 people in Chile, 2,049 people in Colombia and 2,753 people in Mexico between March 20-24. The polls have a confidence level of 95 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, except for the Brazilian poll, for which it is plus or minus one percentage point.