Over 25 million people are considered poor in Argentina today and, out of that total, nearly eight million are facing extreme poverty.
The numbers are not only a screenshot of what is happening in the country – it also provides a worrying forecast of what could happen if the situation is prolonged. The growth of these indicators was exponential in the first quarter of the year, and in the medium and long run, they will prove decisive for others, such as child mortality and life expectancy.
During a recent interview, Buenos Aires Province Habitat & Urban Development minister (and former national economy minister) Silvina Batakis stated that the mortality rate this year and next year would worsen due to the lack of medication and food.
Specialists consulted by Perfil say that, even though poverty and access to healthcare have a high impact on mortality and life expectancy data, for these figures to be representative they must be measured in the medium and long term. The extent of the damage, they warn, may not be seen for years to come.
Rising poverty
Using recent data exclusively from official sources – the INDEC national statistics bureau and the Health Ministry – a correlation may be noted in terms of poverty, destitution and child mortality.
In 2020, extreme poverty reached 10.5 percent of the population and poverty 42 percent, while child mortality stood at 8.4 out of every 1,000 live births under one year old. By the following year, both poverty (37.3 percent) and destitution (8.2 percent) had dropped slightly. So did child mortality, down to 8 out of 1,000. In 2022 – the last year for which child mortality data is available – poverty once again rose (39.2 percent) offset by a slight drop in extreme poverty (8.1 percent). During that year, child mortality was 8.4 out of every 1,000.
The growth in levels of both poverty and extreme poverty, even though it has been sustained, climbed in the first quarter of 2024 as against the last quarter of 2023: the former level went from 44.7 percent to 55.5 percent and the latter from 9.6 percent in December 2023 to 17.5 percent, according to data tracked by the Catholic University of Argentina's Social Debt Observatory.
The body – which gained prominence during the administration of former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as official statistics became unreliable – also observed that though child mortality decreased from 2005 (13.3 per 1,000) to 2022 (8.4 per 1,000), there is “greater heterogeneity between the situation in each of our provinces.” In addition, provincial data “tends to correlate with high monetary destitution levels.”
In provinces with above-average destitution rates, child mortality is higher. In the case of Formosa, by 2022 it had nine percent extreme poverty with child mortality at 15.1 per 1,000; Chaco had 10 percent of its population with child mortality at 10.9 for every 1,000.
On the other hand, “mortality among children aged under one year old was 8.4 in 2022 – one of the lowest values in recorded history,” said the observatory. “However, it has remained stagnant at this value over the last few years, between 2018 and 2022.”
The question is what will happen next. Poverty has risen 10 points and extreme poverty eight in only three months, according to the UCA observatory.
“Generally speaking, the increase in destitution itself will not lead to an increase in child mortality, because it is a multi-causal phenomenon which is highly linked to educational and socio-environmental aspects, especially in children under five,” UCA researcher Ianina Tuñón told Perfil.
The risk of child mortality rising may be associated, added Tuñón, with “chronic paths of severe poverty or destitution which are also coupled with neglect by the State in terms of healthcare services and infrastructure.”
In that context, an “increase of child mortality might happen insofar as we have medium- and long-term cycles in conditions of much deterioration and regression in aspects where we have made progress, such as access to healthcare infrastructure, and better conditions of the living environment,’ she added.
For the time being, poverty levels are growing and Javier Milei’s government is promising to downsize the state even further.
Life expectancy
Just as poverty and destitution are not the only indicators driving child mortality, they are not the only factor they affect either. Access to food and healthcare, closely related with these rates, also affects life expectancy.
According to the World Health Organisation, there is an 18.1-year difference in life expectancy between poorer and richer countries.
Dr. Eugenio Semino, Ombudsman for the Elderly in Buenos Aires City, told this publication that in Argentina “life expectancy is declining, and the gap which favoured women is narrowing.”
In addition to poverty, he pointed out, this phenomenon is related to several other factors, such as maternity at an early age and lack of health and medical check ups.
Semino explained that the budget allocation to sexual and reproductive health was reduced by over 70 percent in the first four months of the year. The dismissal of over 600 people from the ENIA National Unintentional Teenage Pregnancy Plan and the lack of funds in some provinces is worrying organisations and specialists, who warn of the danger of rising levels of teenage pregnancy.
“Poverty has an impact, but for measurements to count, they have to be at least by decade, and, at most, to have an approximate value every five years,” argued Semino, stressing the importance of a long-term view.
“There is a complicated matter of measuring, which does have an impressive prospect, which is the development of the brain from ages zero to five, and that has to do with the lack of protein intake, phosphorus intake and others, and its seriousness is unprecedented. Today we are witnessing not only the term known as ‘undernourishment’ in this country, but also malnutrition: proteins are replaced by starch, and thus brain development is scant, which leads to complicated and long-running diseases such as diabetes,” said the doctor.
Nevertheless, he warned that it is “hasty to give answers or conclusions today.”
In Argentina, explained Semino, life expectancy is between 74 and 75 years old – almost three years below the world average. He added that there is no accurate data because there are no statistics reflecting the true reality of ageing in the country’s population.
According to the Centro de Economía Política (CEPA, “Argentine Political Economy Centre”), which has prepared a report based on official data, during the first five months of 2024, out of every adjusted 100 pesos, 31.5 pesos come from pension cutbacks and 23.2 from public works cutbacks.
These falls, if maintained in the long run, could have a further impact on both child mortality and life expectancy in the years to come.
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