Poll shows Milei alliance with PRO could pay off in October midterms

President Javier Milei’s new electoral alliance grouping the ruling party with new ally PRO looks likely to pay off at the polling booth in October, a new survey shows.

The latest poll by the Management & Fit (M&F) consultancy firm, released just hours before last Sunday’s deadline for candidate lists, paints an encouraging picture for the Milei government. With PRO as an electoral partner, La Libertad Avanza (LLA) reaches 43.8 percent in nationwide voting intention, opening up a 15.6-point lead over Fuerza Patria (grouping Peronism and Kirchnerism), which stands at 28.2 percent. 

Other contenders are marginal: no other political force breaks double digits. Juan Schiaretti’s Peronist bloc of governors (a category applied before the official unveiling of the centrist Provincias Unidas force) polled around eight percent, while the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) failed to score above 3.6 percent. The left-wing Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores – Unidad (FIT-U) barely reached 3.2 percent, with other parties representing around five percent. Another five percent say they do not intend to vote at all.

The study of 2,200 people, with a margin of error of 2.1 percent, tested scenarios for La Libertad Avanza both with and without PRO. On its own, Milei’s movement polled 40.3 percent, with Fuerza Patria on 27.8 percent and PRO on 5.5 percent. Together, the alliance added 3.5 points, underlining the strategic benefit of unity, though PRO’s net contribution fell to 3.1 points.

With Milei seemingly bolstered by his alliance with PRO, the ruling party enters the campaign with a clear nationwide advantage, pointing to improved representation in Congress.

The October midterm elections will be the first true test of Milei’s spell in office. Since his inauguration in December 2023, the self-declared “anarcho-capitalist” economist has introduced sweeping austerity measures to cut the deficit and successfully stabilised monthly inflation, which has fallen from triple-digit annual rates to under two percent in recent months.

Improving inflation numbers, however, have done little to quell the anger of many Argentines over a loss in purchasing power. Wages have remained stagnant despite years of price rises. Milei’s push for deregulation, subsidy cuts and a sharp drop in public spending have fuelled discontent, with regular protests against falling pensions, university and healthcare cutbacks.

Whether voters treat the midterms as a mandate to deepen his libertarian reforms or as an opportunity to check his power will define Argentina’s political landscape heading into 2026.

According to Management & Fit’s latest poll, nearly half of respondents (47.7 percent) approve of the government’s performance, while Milei’s personal image holds firm at 41.7 percent positive. Corruption (21.7 percent), inflation (17.1 percent) and insecurity (17.1 percent) top the list of public concerns. 

However, more than 60 percent oppose Milei’s recent vetoes of pension rises, disability support and wage increases for healthcare workers. At the household level, 78.4 percent say they have had to change their spending habits, while 43.6 percent report difficulty making ends meet – although that figure has improved of late.

According to Management & Fit, the outlook points to tight races in some provinces this October, but the government retains a clear nationwide advantage – a position reinforced by its pact with PRO.

– TIMES/PERFIL