How Milei raised the bar and paid the price in Buenos Aires Province

Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza coalition suffered a tough defeat in last weekend’s elections in Buenos Aires Province. 

The President had placed high stakes on the electoral bout, with his sister and Chief-of-Staff, Karina Milei, in charge of strategy, supported by her top lieutenants: Lower House Speaker Martin Menem, advisor Eduardo ‘Lule’ Menem, and political operative Sebastián Pareja. They had engineered an alliance with Mauricio Macri’s PRO that was negotiated by deputies Cristián Ritondo and Diego Santilli, generating an internal break within the ex-president’s space, particularly with the ex-president’s cousin Jorge Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires City. The expectation was that together they would deliver a strong showing in a historic Peronist bastion, part of their strategy of “hammering the last nail into the Kirchnerite coffin” that would ultimately exhaust Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s remaining political capital. Instead, they lost by 13 percentage points, much more than what was expected, granting Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof a major political victory.

No poll had predicted such a wide margin and there was an overall sense prior that the election could go either way – at least if one looks at the collection of surveys published the week before the election. While in the Casa Rosada they were expecting a “technical draw,” the expectation was that they could lose by some four to five percentage points and still claim victory. With Fernández de Kirchner (kind of) behind bars for corruption and a tough situation in the streets of the ‘Conurbano’ ring of municipalities that encircle Buenos Aires City, Milei, Sister Karina, Pareja and the Menems expected a successful election for the coalition led by LLA, aided by a campaign that included a decent effort to audit live results, known as “fiscalización.” None of that happened, adding fuel to the fire of the civil war within Milei’s “iron triangle,” after controversial advisor Santiago Caputo was relegated by Karina in the designing of the campaign strategy.

While Kicillof is enjoying his time in the limelight, so too are provincial governors under the Provinicias Unidas banner. The local election in Buenos Aires Province confirms the total fragmentation of Argentina’s political system. According to a report by the Aresco consultancy firm published by journalist Carlos Pagni, Peronism has seen a mild gain in total number of votes in these elections, with 3.8 million compared to 3.4 million in 2021’s midterms and 3.38 million in 2017’s. That is, the last-second armistice between Kicillof and Fernández de Kirchner allowed the Peronist space to maintain its electoral base. The fragility of that union was clearly exposed when the governor took the stage for his victory speech and chose to highlight the importance of Cristina and the Kirchnerite space, while the former president sat in home imprisonment together with son Máximo, who did not even grace Axel with his presence onstage. If that last-second deal hadn’t been brokered and Peronism would have gone into the election under multiple parties, what would have been the result? The final vote showed Fuerza Patria with 47.3 percent compared to La Libertad Avanza’s 33.7 percent. Splitting the vote in half, or even in thirds, would’ve guaranteed a Milei victory despite a horrible campaign strategy and even worse execution.

The libertarian sector, together with PRO, saw their votes drop by 1.5 million from 4.2 million in 2021 to 2.7 million this year. Absenteeism, on the other hand, rose from 3.5 million in 2021 to 5.6 million in 2025. It’s important to note that the total number of registered voters grew 1.7 million to 14.4 million, so turnout fell to a meagre 61 percent. Clearly, Milei failed to attract the group of voters that took him to the Casa Rosada in 2023 during the run-off, those who probably supported then-PRO presidential hopefuls Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in the PASO primaries that year. At the same time, and despite a harrowing recession and a growing sense of disillusionment with the political class, Peronist mayors and municipal leaders led the effort to get their voters out to the ballot box.

These figures open up a series of questions ahead of October’s national midterms, a vote on which the Milei administration has decided to gamble the remaining two years of its administration. How much of what happened in the provincial vote will occur in the upcoming midterm elections and what weight will it have on the overall figures? The market and the political ecosystem, seems to have recalibrated its expectations, putting further financial pressure on the government. Some analysts have compared last weekend’s defeat with the beginning of the end for Macri, who lost the primaries in 2019 and saw the economy, and his government, implode.

While it is one of the major possibilities being discussed at different levels, it feels a bit far-fetched, and even extreme. From a political standpoint, the national election will have greater involvement from Milei and the central government, even if they were almost omnipresent during the provincial bout. It will also enjoy greater investment as the Casa Rosada tries to get its disenchanted voters out of their homes, probably fearmongering them by claiming that the ‘Kuka’ Kirchnerites are once again on the verge of a comeback. The sizeable victory enjoyed by the united Peronist front could even help the official narrative. At the same time, Partido Justicialista mayors and municipal leaders went all-out in this election given that their local legislatures – and therefore power structures – were at stake. They have little skin in the national game, particularly as they have been excluded from all candidate lists – a tactical mistake by Axel, Cristina and Sergio Massa, all of whom vied for power and gave shape to the unity ticket. Milei is expected to take the lead in the national campaign, relegating Karina as he tries to bury the civil war with Caputo, who could be given a greater role. At the same time, Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos has been empowered to reach provincial agreements in order to improve their odds.

The real risk comes from the economic situation, which is probably one of the main causes behind the electoral defeat. Argentina’s economy has clearly stalled over the past several months, while pressure on the peso-dollar exchange rate has led to a contained devaluation that could fuel inflation going forward. Real wages continue to fall, meaning purchasing power is being eroded, exacerbated by the number of small and medium-sized firms closing up shop. There is less supply of formal employment, and even those types of jobs aren’t enough for workers to make it to the end of the month. Argentina’s country-risk premium rate surged again, making it harder for Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo to gain access to credit. Caputo is also beginning to show cracks within the economy strategy, indicating that certain decisions are being taken by the President himself and don’t count on the full support of the economic team.

It will be a tough several weeks until the election for the Milei administration, and for Argentina in general. There is a general tendency to quickly enter into crisis mode, particularly after surprise electoral results and a historic memory of runs on the currency. Last weekend’s election consisted of a local vote to renew municipal authorities, but it became a national referendum over the general direction of the Milei government. Not only because of Argentines’ obsession and fear with crises, but because Milei himself put it in those terms. He raised the bar even higher than was necessary, generating greater risks for himself. Now he’s paying the price. 

The political system remains broken, though, so anything is still possible.