Russian psyops and the dance of the candidates

A former ally of the governing libertarian coalition recently repeated what the President’s unofficial biographer, El Loco magazine journalist Juan Luis Gonzalez, explained in his notorious book El Loco (“The Madman”): Javier and Karina Milei are an inseparable and impenetrable tandem with deep psychological problems. They rule the state with an iron fist, much more so Sister Karina, who is the presidential chief-of-staff, than Javier, the famous economist who made the rounds on late-night cable TV shows and almost unwittingly found himself presiding over the nation. In a humorous parallel, Jerzy Kosinski’s 1970 masterpiece Being There is currently playing at a theatre on Avenida Corrientes in Buenos Aires, with protagonist Chauncey Gardner being played by none other than Guillermo Francella, one of the president’s favourite actors.

The ambition of the Milei siblings, according to the former first-line La Libertad Avanza official, is nothing more than an absolute power grab and stems primarily from a thirst for revenge, particularly Karina, who feels the world had never fully recognised her for what she was. According to the source, who had been with them from the very beginning, Karina’s control over Javier is near total. The President relies on his trusted political advisor, the controversial Santaigo Caputo, but he is no wunderkind and his power is totally secondary, they added. His role, the source suggests, is more to serve as a sort of psychological containment barrier for Javier, in order to avoid feeling totally overrun by his sister.

The President is uninterested or unaware of the daily goings on of governing the nation, a task that falls on Karina and her trusted inner circle, people like advisor Eduardo ‘Lule’ Menem and his cousin, Lower House Speaker Martín Menem. This, and their rookie status, has led the Mileis to create a power structure that is built on loyalty – and economic opportunity in a few cases – and it has led to an unsynchronised and ineffective management of the state, which seems to be failing on many fronts. This is the kind of situation that leads to a mediocre journalist better known for his bravado and provocation on social media to end up in the top position of Cabinet Chief. It also helps explain the tragic downfall of Manuel Adorni, who is at the centre of a petty corruption scandal – the worst kind, especially for an eternal provocateur who pretended to own the moral higher ground. It also explains why, for now, he remains in his post, given he “belongs” to Karina the Almighty.

This is the official narrative from all of those who have been banished from Milei’s libertarian Eden. In great part marked by the malice of someone who’s been hurt and wants to hit back, such conclusions do, nonetheless, explain a lot of the behaviour as seen from the outside. There are few and limited instances in which information about the inner workings of the Milei administration gets out – it confirms González’s research, as well as the constant attacks from the President’s “only” former friend, economist Diego Giaccomini.

This is the context in which the government is looking to engineer a generational shift and economic miracle that will “Make Argentina Great Again” – destroying the state from the inside and unleashing the productive forces of the free market. President Milei perceives himself as an anarcho-capitalist; he also fancies himself a lion, which in a certain way connects him with the anthropomorphic therian movement so popular with today’s youngsters — his strength was initially, the youth vote. They’re also most of the same weaknesses that were identified during, before and after the wildly successful presidential campaign that allowed Milei to bury the two leading coalitions that had dominated Argentine politics for more than a decade, Mauricio Macri’s Cambiemos/Juntos por el Cambio and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s Frente de Todos/Unión por la Patria.

Making the state inefficient should arguably be part of the plan for a group of self-proclaimed anarchists, but Milei has fared to date like most of his predecessors. Mixed results include multiple major reform packages passed through Congress and a substantial lowering of inflation. This, together with the “fear of everything else” syndrome (FOES), won Milei and his ragtag group of libertarians and leeches a decisive electoral victory in midterms, extending their mandate and giving them desperately needed legislative muscle. Several months into the second half of his term, Milei and his government are suffering from societal exhaustion given the lack of concrete results at the individual economic level, despite a solid performance from extractivist sectors that carry GDP measurements. Beyond statistics, a majority of the population is poorer, less employed and more dissatisfied, leading to a slide in the President’s positioning in opinion polls, and a rise in disappointment among those who attributed messianic powers to Milei.

At one point, it looked like President Milei had achieved Teflon status – no matter what madness or obscenity he blurted or posted on social media, his support remained. Even in the face of serious accusations such as the ‘$LIBRA’ crypto-scandal (it is increasingly evident that he and his inner circle are not only guilty but have lied repeatedly, Milei managed to recover and claw back an aforementioned surprise win in last year’s midterms, albeit with a huge hand from US President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Have things changed? A series of scandals involving several top figures in the Milei government, together with a large portion of society that aren’t seeing their individual lot improve, are creating serious chinks in the armour. From the Diego Spagnuolo voice-note messages that pointed to corruption at the ANDIS national disability agency to the Adorni scandal, the Milei administration is under siege and feeling the heat.

Interestingly, as Javier, Karina, Manuel and the rest of them were trying to fend off the incoming projectiles, investigative journalist Santiago O’Donnell dropped a fascinating bomb, but not at the Casa Rosada’s footsteps. O’Donnell participated in a global consortium of investigative journalists that were tracking Russian media operations in the Caribbean and Latin America, many times referred to as “psyops” or psychological operations. The documents reveal that starting in April 2024, when Joe Biden was at the White House and Milei had a pro-Ukraine stance, an organisation named “The Company” engaged in a disinformation campaign across the region, allegedly spending US$283,100 on more than 250 news articles in 20 Argentine outlets including Infobae, Cronista, Ámbito, C5N and El Destape, amongst others. “The Company,” which has ties to the Kremlin-linked paramilitary group Wagner Group, spent another US$343,000 on intelligence, work on the ground, polls, in-person meetings with opinion leaders and more. Their objective was to sow mistrust against the Milei administration due to its position in the Russia – Ukraine war, generate anti-US narratives, and recruit potential loyalists willing to pursue Russian interests. The list of articles and social media posts reveals pieces with known bylines and others signed by fake digital profiles.

This situation should’ve handed the government an easy win in a difficult context, particularly in what is one of its strengths, the information ecosystem in the digital age. Milei repeated his mantra about not hating journalists enough and the Casa Rosada revoked the press credentials of journalists belonging to the group of outlets involved in the scandal, with a few notable exceptions (such as Infobae and Cronista). The government, despite now having switched its stance in tandem with Donald Trump’s US foreign policy and given Volodymyr Zelenskyy the cold shoulder, said it would not tolerate foreign intromission. They were unable to sustain the narrative, and even in the face of some mediocre criticism of O’Donnell’s investigation by a few of the accused outlets, a major story passed on to the background.

A quick comment on the Russian disinformation campaign, which the Kremlin’s representatives in Buenos Aires denied was such, calling the accusations “ideological” and “unfounded.” Many of the journalists and outlets on the list denied having had any approach from Russian interlocutors or having received payments for publishing those articles. Some of those, indeed, appear like honest journalistic articles (others don’t and many are blatant lies). There were attempts to discredit O’Donnell, who worked with Julian Assange on WikiLeaks and is one of Argentina’s leading investigative journalists. Others say that the amount spent was insignificant and that it had no effect on local perceptions. The reality is that Argentina, and Latin America more broadly, is a fertile breeding-ground for public opinion manipulation, and has been for a while. Russia, together with China, and even the United States, are at the forefront of the battle for control of the information ecosystem, and those and many other powers employ covert and explicit operations in order to pursue their geopolitical objectives. It’s not only geopolitical, other actors are involved in scams and hacks aimed at raising funds, both for criminal enterprise or state-backed actors. O’Donnell’s reporting is just the tip of the iceberg.

Back to the political ecosystem, the Milei administration is on the back foot, tired, hanging off the ropes, but is nowhere near knockout territory. The FOES syndrome coined above is part of the reason why. Many are beginning to try and pop their heads out to see if it’s time to throw their hats in the ring of presidential candidates. It is no secret that Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof wants his chance, he even battled Cristina for it. Mauricio Macri has been looking for PRO’s candidate for some time now, with reports of outsider businessmen like Marcos Galperín or even Jorge Brito being tempted. Milei’s own vice-president, Victoria Villaruel, has contacts. Economist Carlos Melconian surprisingly admits he wants in. Then there’s eternal talk of evangelical pastor Dante Gebel, who some say is close to Sergio Massa, and others say it’s the Man from Tigre who wants a second chance. Juan Grabois is expected to go at it again, and there will be many more.

In Argentina, it’s always campaign time, though it’s always too early to start campaigning. The Milei siblings will have it tough and their dreams of long-lasting political hegemony will not last if the economy doesn’t pick up. And the rest of the group in the ring could suffer Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s fate if they’re not strategic. Or Massa’s, who financed La Libertad Avanza’s campaign to fragment Juntos por el Cambio and ended up losing against Milei. It will be a fascinating run for all of them, and the government will continue to be dysfunctional,  though Milei remains politically competitive.