Shock ‘n awe

The echo chamber here in the capital of those (dis-)United States has reverberated this week to the sound and fury of political conflict. Rejoicing on the Right at the triumph of Donald Trump; a doomsday spiral of despair on the Left at the stark defeat of Kamala Harris. Yet the voice that spoke most loudly to me belonged to an old friend, a wise doctor diagnosing the state of the country he loves.

“We have to look at ourselves in the mirror now, and recognise what we have become,” he ventured, reminding me of voices down the years heard in Argentina. “A nation bitterly divided, where the majority chose the strongman, who may or may not respect democracy.” He paused before continuing. “Like a patient needing treatment, we have to see ourselves for who we are.”

Viewed through the lens of the past elections I covered as a journalist, what was so striking this week lay in the landslide that broke for Trump in the final days of a campaign that had looked way too close to call. Early on, you kept a close eye on the third-largest state in the union, Florida, which was back in 2000 the key to an election (Bush Junior v Al Gore) that came down to a few hundred votes. Within 90 minutes of closing, this time Florida was called for Trump, by a staggering 13 percentage points. “A bloodbath,” to quote one veteran Democrat in Miami.

Then, one after another, the battleground states fell in line behind the man who had built an election agenda on lies, disinformation, and brazenly false claims about his first term as president. From old Georgia in the South, where a substantial black, male vote went his way, to industrial Michigan in the North, where lifelong union members chose him, Trump reigned supreme. By morning, the popular vote spoke volumes, Republicans winning in a manner not seen since Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

Even Latinos opted in some key areas for the man who so used the issue of immigration to sow anger among so many. Luis Garcia-Navarro at The New York Times did some forensic work on why Latino men favoured Trump by a historic margin, seeing economic concerns, anti-illegal immigrant sentiment from those here legally, even the influence of the growing Evangelical churches.

Commentator Leon Krauze saw something else: the allure of ‘El Caudillo.’ “Trump represents a familiar archetype in Latin American history,” he wrote. “The charismatic leader, the strongman, the messianic leader, deeply ingrained in Latino culture.” Once again, echoes of Argentina, from Juan Domingo Perón to Javier Milei.

The question now becomes how Trump will use the clear mandate he has won. The fears are obvious. A leader who makes no secret of his desire for unchecked power, freedom of action, not to mention his lust for revenge on enemies and his wish to have the Judiciary, even the military do as he says – well, dark days loom if you listen to Washington this week. “I’m most worried that this country is not what I thought it was, but someplace much more cruel and nasty and selfish,” confided writer Ruth Marcus. “Both in our attitude towards our fellow Americans and in its conception of America’s place in the world.”

Certainly the wider world has good reason to anticipate an earthquake of sorts when it comes to how Trump will deal with wars in Europe and the Middle East, let alone the fears of what China could do over Taiwan. It is no secret among the Trump loyalists likely to inherit control of the US State Department and the National Security Council: that a dramatic change of policy is imperative.

When the next President declares he will solve the Ukraine crisis “within 24 hours,” his acolytes foresee President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv being told there’s no more money and weapons coming, and Trump’s “good friend” Putin (his definition) bought off with the third of Ukraine currently under his control. No wonder Moscow celebrated Trump’s victory. “Hallelujah!” posted a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman on Telegram.

Likewise, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu can expect unflinching support for his wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, instead of Joe Biden’s increasingly desperate pleas for restraint, which have gone unheard in Jerusalem. Some within the Trump camp suggest he will sign off on Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, in clear contrast to Biden’s insistence on Israel staying well away from such targets. Bibi himself noted Trump’s win as “History’s greatest comeback….a huge victory!”

For some this will now be a fundamental turning-point in America’s world leadership. “A world on fire,” said opinion-writer Eugene Robinson. “I worry so that he will damage our most vital alliances, so weaken our ties with Europe and Asian allies – and throw Ukraine and Taiwan to the wolves.”

Yet. The years teach much which the days never know. The years of reporting Washington taught me that, just when you sense the checks and balances won’t work, they do. That was a major feature of Trump’s first term, mad moments when someone high in the system – at the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department – found a way to stop him. But yes, this time around he will be much better prepared to exercise the levers of power, and none of us should doubt his capacity for recklessness and self-indulgence.

The most radical of his “proposals” – mass deportations of immigrants, raining retribution on opponents, imposing punishing tariffs on trade – well, you wonder whether the guardrails of the American Way will not come into play. You also question the public’s appetite for Trump-like fanaticism and chaos.

“The people have spoken,” wrote Karen Tumulty in The Washington Post. “We’ve lived through so many dark times, but the great thing about our form of democracy is that one election is never the last word.” Indeed. Because for every Republican in the Congress, now cheering Trump’s triumph, there’s the sure knowledge that in just two years they face the electorate again.