The lady vanishes

The apology demanded by President Javier Milei for the widespread insinuations (also extending to this column) of an immunity pact with Kirchnerism is in order, now that ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has been permanently taken out of the political arena by unimpeachably institutional means passing through 15 judges (whatever she might splutter about “lawfare”). Or is it?

This columnist feels that the suspicions of Fernández de Kirchner being kept politically alive at all costs (even by scuppering the ‘ficha limpia’ bills to disqualify those with upheld corruption convictions such as the one unanimously ratified by the Supreme Court against CFK last Tuesday) as the perfect punching-bag for the October midterms were true enough until very recently.

This space has argued more than once that such polarisation served as good short-term tactics but poor long-term strategy – in other words, they would likely pay dividends in the midterms but potential investors will continue to shy away if they see Fernández de Kirchner on the other side of any Milei failure with the Plan B of a constructive alternative sorely needed. But what is far more important than this column saying this is investors thinking this and they do – with the libertarians gradually becoming aware. Plus their self-confidence being hugely boosted by last month’s Buenos Aires City triumph when they almost doubled the vote of a PRO entrenched for two decades – tantamount to shattering ex-president Mauricio Macri, which, when combined with Tuesday’s ruling, adds up to 12 years of Argentine presidencies being consigned to the past in the space of just 23 days. This victory of an insipid presidential spokesman fed optimism that they can beat anybody and do not need a demonised witchy woman to make them look good.

Since this column’s focus is the campaign, the most immediate question here is who replaces Fernández de Kirchner at the Peronist helm rather than any dissection of the Supreme Court ruling. If indeed there is a change in leadership because the lady does not show the slightest intention of budging – and nor is she under any obligation to renounce the Partido Justicialista chair even if even a provincial candidacy has been quashed by the Supreme Court ruling. The problems of Peronist succession have always been so daunting historically that most of the movement would rather not face them. Besides, who could possibly replace her – Máximo? The movement’s chief heavyweight, Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof, cannot be considered until and if he survives the September 7 provincial elections.

Having said all this, it would be churlish to deny Milei his apology for being accused of granting Fernández de Kirchner immunity in order to polarise all moderate parties out of the race, now that she has been banished from all electoral scenarios – even if this apology is uttered in “sorry but not sorry” tones.

Last Saturday’s column was a curtain-raiser for the Misiones provincial elections with an analysis of the results promised for today so here goes.

Firstly, the results themselves. The local ruling party Frente Renovador de Concordia finished top of the heap with 28.6 percent of the vote, followed by La Libertad Avanza making its maiden run under that label with 21.9 percent while the big surprise was Por la Vida y los Valores (pro-life but its main attraction its top candidate, Ramón Amarilla, the policeman who headed last September’s mutiny) with 19.1 percent. These were the only double-digit lists – Partido Agrario y Social (a Kirchnerite splinter placing ideology on the backburner and centring its appeal on farmers) polled 8.9 percent while an independent libertarian list responding to the pro-Milei Radical national deputy Martín Arjol (not endorsed by either his old or new masters) garnered 8.3 percent. The Frente Unidos por el Futuro (with the erstwhile national ruling parties PRO and the UCR Radicals feeling obliged to combine forces to pick up even one of the 20 provincial legislature seats at stake) could only muster 5.7 percent, which was also the sum total for three left-leaning groupings – Confluencia Popular por la

Patria (Peronist), Tierra, Techo y Trabajo and Partido del Obrero. Two other lists, which will not be named since failing to reach even one percent, bring up the rear – such also-rans are normally weeded out by the PASO primaries but these have gone out of fashion. Turnout was 57 percent, not the lowest in this year’s voting but poor.

The breakdown of the 20 provincial deputies shows the ruling Frente Renovador holding six of its 11 seats at stake, thus dwindling from a comfortable majority of 25 of the 40 seats to exactly half. There is a new opposition with the former Juntos por el Cambio parties (10 seats in the old legislature) being displaced by La Libertad Avanza under the former tennis player Diego Hartfield with five seats while Amarilla’s people took four. Agrario y Social held two of its three seats at stake, dropping a seat to total three while Radical Santiago Koch takes Unidos por el Futuro to five, half its former strength, and fellow-Radical Arjol clinched the last seat for the Partido Libertario. Pedro Puerta, the son of former two-term governor Ramón Puerta (president of Argentina for two days just before the Christmas of 2001) is the sole deputy for Activar from the old house following the scandal of paedophile Germán Kiczka (now unseated).

Nobody really won in Misiones last Sunday with the possible exception of Ramón Amarilla. The fact that the two leading parties representing the provincial and national governments respectively and sharing the régime’s 11 seats at stake polled less than half the vote between them shows a certain discontent with both – Frente Renovador strongman Carlos Rovira may have been the winner but drew little over half the electorate. The national government sent in such big guns as presidential chief-of-staff Karina Milei, Congress Speaker Martín Menem and Security Minister Patricia Bullrich but Misiones has at least two bones to pick with the libertarians – deregulation has had a devastating effect on yerba mate prices while the strong peso has caused the influx of Brazilian and Paraguayan bargain shoppers to dry up almost completely. Hartfield’s 21.9 percent might look like an impressive start but is only half of Milei’s 42 percent in 2023 (not to mention his run-off 56 percent).

Hopefully this does justice to Misiones – next week’s column is likely to be much closer to our end of the river.