Year one: Milei surpassed low expectations, but now faces high ones

Javier Milei celebrates his first year in office this week. He has reasons to celebrate: more Argentines are happier with him than he and most of us could have imagined a year ago, given his lack of governing experience, his almost non-existent team and the delicate situation he inherited.

When Milei took office in December 2023, the debate in informed circles was whether he would be able to govern Argentina. Now the debate is whether this is the beginning of a new political era for the country’s democracy — one that would elevate Milei to the ranks of the political personalities who have dominated domestic politics since 1983: Raúl Alfonsín in the 1980s, Carlos Menem in the 1990s, Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s.

This is Milei’s intention, of course. His main asset is that he is a man on a mission, whose life was drifting purposelessly until he decided to enter politics. He has found his raison d’être and seems to be enjoying every minute of it.

Most Argentines, the polls say, have stopped paying much attention to what he has to say — or write on X — but are okay with him because he has managed to slow inflation to below three percent a month. They also value that the key prices in the dollarised mind of Argentines, buying and selling US dollars, are going down. According to a recent private report, Argentina’s peso is the global currency that has appreciated the most this year, up by 40 percent — a situation that, throughout the country’s economic history, has always led to trouble sooner or later.

The question of whether Milei will be an anecdote or a new force that defines an era will largely begin to be answered in 2025. First and foremost, it will depend on the economy, and second — but by no means less important — on the midterm elections in October.  One is attached to the other. If the current trajectory of events holds, Milei could benefit from a stable economy and a downward inflationary trend, giving his La Libertad Avanza party a good chance of emerging victorious in the midterms.

Milei and his inner circle have shown skill in waging a defensive political battle this year, fighting the opposition while also securing some key legislation (not a lot, but good enough). They have also avoided defeats. However, being constructive and proactive will require a complete change of mindset from the governing team next year.

Meanwhile, for many Argentines, the Milei era is starting to look like a nightmare: the President and his followers are not inviting everybody to their party. Politically, the right-wing populism they proclaim — shown in all its splendour at the CPAC event in Buenos Aires this week — feeds a narrative of division that is better at excluding than including the different identities that make up society. The catchphrase “Argentinos de bien” (or “Good Argentines”) that Milei often uses is too vague to include anyone concretely, serving as the opposite of the political “caste” he claims to fight.

In policy terms, Milei picks more enemies than he makes friends. Even within the government offices outside Casa Rosada, top officials see this as a problem and a potential Achilles’ heel of his Presidency. This week, his government confirmed that most retirees will no longer receive free medicine and began threatening to charge foreign residents for university education and healthcare. It also announced that fuel stations will be able to offer self-service pumps, potentially putting 70,000 service station employees out of work.

For these people — and for the half of the country that consistently tells pollsters they dislike Milei — this first anniversary marks a year of distress rather than joy. Yet even those who despise the President for his ideology and methods concede that the economic direction the country was heading in last year was on a collision course with oblivion. Even if Milei fails and does not become a long-term dominant force in the country, an impact has been made. His legacy of fiscal austerity and low inflation will not vanish overnight and might be part of a new Zeitgeist that will remain with us, with or without him.

When the President blows out the candle on his first anniversary on Tuesday — before or after he speaks on national TV to boast of his achievements — he would do well to consider the risks ahead. Much of his public opinion success in the polls lies in having warned Argentines that tough times were coming. 

Now he is saying that only good news lies ahead. Milei might be walking on a minefield without even realising it.