When Javier Milei became President of Argentina a year ago, addressing Congress with his back turned, there were two conflicting analyses as to how his administration and relation with parliament would go. From a more “denialist” angle, you heard phrases like “Milei will not be able to do what he says” and “Congress will slam the brakes on him.” But those more impressed by the Milei phenomenon said that he would “bypass the institutions” and even “govern without Congress.”
In the end, neither of these two things occurred. La Libertad Avanza (LLA) has traced a course of austerity and fairly radical political reforms with major cuts for sensitive sectors such as the pensioners, the universities and the social movements, also stretching the separation of powers to the limit while pushing unpopular measures with barely a third of the vote. Despite some huge demonstrations and protests, such as the federal education marches, to date this has not provoked any large social outburst.
Milei’s vision, supported by his electoral triumph, has shifted the entire republican regime, forcing it to adapt one way or another. And he has managed that while ignoring the customs and manners of parliamentary tradition, treating the deputies as “rats,” “caste” and “fiscal degenerates” and even so, he could legislate. Even a hardliner like Máximo Kirchner did not want to step out of line. Remember his speech addressing his own people when he explained: “The veto is a presidential prerogative” about which “there could be no complaint.”
It is also true that the government team is dotted with personalities employing the classic arts of political negotiation like Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos or Lower House Speaker Martín Menem. Even Vice-President Victoria Villarruel, today an “internal enemy” of Milei, served as a tie-breaker for the final approval of the ‘Ley de Bases’ reform.
With a minority in both chambers and with no governors or mayors of their own, any balance of “only nine laws approved” would be incomplete. The ‘Ley de Bases,’ accompanying fiscal package and the vetoes and presidential DNU emergency decrees amending over 100 current laws should all be added, no mean feat for the government’s scant legislative representation.
Milei has reached the last week of ordinary sessions radiating a leadership consolidated by his positive image and showing himself to be more pragmatic than ideological in key aspects to advance his programme. Nevertheless, challenges by no means simple loom – the tensions with his PRO allies over the collapse of the ‘Ficha Limpia’ anti-corruption bill, the attempts at electoral reform, the 2025 Budget in limbo, the renewal of the Supreme Court and the re-election of Martín Menem as speaker.
'Ficha Limpia' deadlocked and the tensions with PRO
The complaints voiced by PRO hardliners over the lack of quorum to debate the ‘Ficha Limpia’ bill evoke the complaints of Radical caucus chief Rodrigo de Loredo prior to raising his hand to support the ‘Ley de Bases.’ Milei knows that his force is poised for hegemony over anti-Peronist politics, which now centre on him and not ex-president Mauricio Macri, who accuses him of “inconsistency” in his battle against the caste.
Some even speak of a secret pact between the LLA and Kirchnerism. There was no need for any direct communication or conspiratorial meetings since it is a reality that polarisation benefits both. Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has a hard core of 30 percent but is also rejected by around half the population. On the other hand, an advance against her candidacy could set up Peronism for an epic comeback, as occurred with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
For PRO, the betrayal over the ‘Ficha Limpia’ bill represents a concrete danger – to become completely blurred politically by La Libertad Avanza.
“Do we want a country without corruption or not?” tweeted Macri when the session was frustrated. Milei affirms that he is preparing a “cleaner sheet” bill, which does not permit bans for political motives and prevents judicial persecution but this seems more of a justification than a real initiative. It is striking that in this discussion, the pragmatists are the libertarians and the “dogmatists” PRO.
The renewal of Martín Menem as Speaker
Wednesday’s preparatory session, the last of the standard legislative calendar, centred around Martín Menem’s re-election with everything pointing in that direction.
Vice-presidents Cecilia Moreau (Unión por la Patria), Julio Cobos (UCR) and Silvia Lospennato (PRO) were also looking firm although the PRO caucus proposed promoting its chief Cristian Ritondo to the second vice-presidency, relegating the Radicals to third place. The criterion of Unión por la Patria is that the posts of presidential succession should remain under government control so that there seemed to be no major obstacles to re-election.
Menem had prepared a 400-page report detailing the government’s parliamentary work in the context of the austerity plan and reforms. The leader has also headed various constructive events for the ruling party together with Karina Milei, its central power-broker. Activity with eyes clearly set on next year’s elections.
The pending agenda: electoral reform, budget and Supreme Court
As for the pending legislative agenda, the government is expected to call extraordinary sessions to debate various issues which will not be left by the wayside.
One of the structural proposals is electoral reform, including elimination of the PASO primaries which could be a bargaining-chip in the negotiations between the government and Peronism, together with the incorporation of Ariel Lijo into the Supreme Court (something which could happen if the government gives up Lijo’s fellow-nominee Manuel García-Mansilla to be replaced by a woman who could be María de los Ángeles Sacnun, an ex-senator and La Cámpora militant). The negotiation could be postponed since the government is analysing the possibility of appointing Lijo and García-Mansilla by decree for a year, during which period they would have to be ratified by the Senate.
The government’s electoral reform bill eliminates state financing for political parties, free ad spots and the ceiling on private contributions, as well as multiplying the number of card-carrying members and provinces with registration required to be able to present candidates in national elections. The loudest voices against this bill have been raised from the left.
"Erasing most political expressions," argued Myriam Bregman while Gabriel Solano affirmed that it “seeks to ban the left and privatise the elections.”
In parallel, the governors are pressing to include the Budget in the extraordinary agenda but the negotiations are advancing in fragmented fashion with individual meetings between the provincial executives and officials like Cabinet Chief Francos and other presidential advisors. For the government, extending the Budget yet again represents a discretionary power which, they argue, guarantees the defence of fiscal adjustment. The governors, on their side, want to be guaranteed the necessary funds to cover provincial public works and ordinary running expenses without remaining subject to permanent negotiation with the national government.
Another burning issue is the privatisation of Aerolíneas Argentinas, which keeps the aviation unions on the hop. Via various decrees, the government has advanced with an “open skies” policy in detriment of the state flag carrier with dismissals in the sector. Discussing Aerolíneas in extraordinary sessions could revive union conflicts during summer, a front which the government seems to have under control but this is Argentina. You never know.
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