Polling stations close in key midterm elections that will define Milei's future

Voting has ended in Argentina's 2025 legislative elections, a vote that will determine the future of President Javier Milei’s reform agenda and likely trigger market turmoil if voters desert him, despite unprecedented financial support from the United States.

The midterm elections are the first national test of support for Milei’s budget-slashing cuts and attempts to deregulate the economy since he won power two years ago.

Half of the seats in the lower house Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate are up for grabs. The government needs to secure at least one-third of Congress to push forward reforms, hold off congressional rejection of presidential vetoes and block any attempt at impeachment.

Polling stations were open from 8am to 6pm local time, with preliminary results expected three hours later.

Voting is compulsory for citizens aged 18 to 70 and optional for those aged 16 and 17 years old. By 5pm, turnout stood at 58 percent of the 36 million registered voters.

The run-up to the vote was marked by a sharp run on the national currency, the peso, which fell eight percent after Milei’s party suffered a heavy defeat in Buenos Aires Province on September 7 – a setback that strengthened Peronist Governor Axel Kicillof.

That market rout forced Milei to seek a bailout from US President Donald Trump. Washington has promised an unprecedented US$40 billion package of aid, with the US Treasury even buying pesos to cool the currency crisis.

But the assistance came with a warning from Trump, who conditioned the help on a favourable result for Milei, telling Argentines he would not “be generous” if the outcome went against him.

Some Argentine economists have warned that Washington could end up in a “financial Vietnam.”

Clad in his trademark leather jacket, President Milei voted in Buenos Aires before noon, greeting supporters who waited for him but refusing to take questions from the media.

Everything suggests that his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), will gain seats: it currently holds just 37 of 257 deputies and six of 72 senators and is not defending any seats this cycle. But that still may not be enough to reach the one-third threshold he needs in Congress.

Economic uncertainty dominated the day. Fears of a peso devaluation have kept markets under extreme pressure for weeks.

Asked whether the government might devalue the currency if it fared poorly at the polls, Economy Minister Luis Caputo replied bluntly, “No.” He insisted that Monday would be “just another day,” and that the government’s managed-band exchange-rate system, in place since April, would remain unchanged.

‘Nothing for workers’

Adriana Cotoneo, a 69-year-old pensioner voting in Buenos Aires, said she backed Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party “not because I believe it’s the best option, but because I’m clear about who I want to be gone” – a reference to the opposition Peronist force that has governed Argentina for much of its post-war history.

Yet Cotoneo added that she hoped the President would “reflect on his ways” and “sometimes put his ego aside.”

Elsewhere at the capital, Mariana Menéndez, a 54-year-old public-health worker, voted anxiously, explaining that 200 of the 600 employees at her hospital had been dismissed. “The only thing this government has done is give greater benefits to powerful groups – nothing for workers,” she said bitterly.

A former TV pundit, Milei came to power promising shock therapy for Argentina’s long-ailing economy, revving a chainsaw as a symbol of his plan to slash state spending.

He cut tens of thousands of public-sector jobs, froze public works, and reduced spending on health, education and pensions – austerity measures that initially plunged millions into deeper poverty but did help to cut inflation by two-thirds.

However, consumption and industrial activity have slumped, and critics say his harsh economic programme “is not working for the people, for businesses, or for industry,” as opposition Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) senator Martín Lousteau (running for Ciudadanos Unidos) said after voting. “We need a better, less polarised Congress, with fewer insults and more dialogue,” he added.

Milei has faced waves of street protests against the cuts, some of which were met with a heavy-handed police response. His clashes with provincial governors have also intensified, especially after Congress overturned several of his 2024 vetoes.

US generosity limited

Investors began dumping the peso after Milei’s September defeat, and analysts say his party and its allies are unlikely to win a majority of seats in Sunday’s vote. That means the LLA would continue to rely on the centre-right opposition to pass legislation, facing an entrenched Peronist bloc.

The self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president has already seen many of his signature policies blocked, including attempts to privatise major state-owned firms.

Adding to his woes, members of Milei’s inner circle have been implicated in scandals – among them a judicial investigation into an alleged cryptocurrency fraud linked to the president himself, and corruption accusations against his sister and presidential chief-of-staff Karina Milei.

Washington’s assistance came at a crucial moment for the right-wing leader. But Mauricio Monge, Latin-America economist at Oxford Economics, says the US aid “is not enough to counteract the growing likelihood that the election results will prevent further reforms.”

“If history has taught us anything about Argentina,” he said, “it’s that previous bailouts, when political support wanes, have proven futile.”