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ARGENTINA | 05-10-2023 18:32

First post-Insaurralde scandal poll shows impact on Unión por la Patria vote

Opinion poll measuring the impact of the scandal provoked by the luxurious trip taken by Martín Insaurralde and Sofía Clerici delivers bad news for government.

The first opinion poll measuring the impact of the scandal provoked by the luxurious trip taken by Martín Insaurralde and Sofía Clerici would seem to be bad news to the government – many undecided voters and even those previously voting for Unión por la Patria now do not want to back the ruling coalition.

That is the conclusion of a CB Consultora survey carried out last Tuesday with 1,181 respondents. Notably, 89.2 percent said they consider themselves informed about the case (52 percent somewhat and 37.2 percent very informed), underlining the penetration of the furore.

"This is an expansive wave which is growing and reaching new segments. The news made a lot of noise. I read studies along those lines about the impact of the trial of Fernando Báez [Sosa] and the attempted magnicide of Cristina [Fernández de Kirchner]. In an atmosphere of apathy and disenchantment, this has affected Unión por la Patria, especially those who had found an expression for their disenchantment in Javier Milei," said Cristian Buttié, the head of the consultancy firm.

The strongest measure of the damage is the response of some undecided and even Peronist voters with 8.9 percent of the survey responding that they had been in doubt but that on the basis of this scandal they would not vote for Unión por la Patria. A further 3.8 percent said that they had been thinking of voting for the government ticket but will now change their vote. The surprise is that 1.2 percent said that they had not been thinking of voting for Unión por la Patria but on the basis of this episode they now would.

"There is high approval of the request for his resignation as showing leadership beyond Kirchnerite hegemony. Something like what [Buenos Aires Province Governor] Axel Kicillof said about composing new songs and an opportunity for [Sergio] Massa too," said Buttié. 

Fully 83.1 percent are in agreement with Insaurralde being asked to resign after the scandal.

Nevertheless, Buttié assured that the Marbella trip "has clearly had a huge impact on Unión por la Patria in Buenos Aires Province. Lomas de Zamora is the second-most important district of the third electoral section (southern Greater Buenos Aires). It affects core strategy."

Another point measured by the survey concerns whether the governor was aware of the trip or not with 46.5 percent feeling that Kicillof knew about Insaurralde’s trip while 30.7 percent responded "I don’t know" and only 22.8 percent considered that "it took him by surprise."

The traditional "cloud of words" to define the impact of the scandal included "outrage," "indignation," "impotence" and "disappointment," among other reactions. 

Julian D'Imperio

Julian D'Imperio

Redactor Especial de Política de PERFIL. Mail: [email protected]

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