In the film Groundhog Day, the protagonist wakes up every morning to relive the same day.
In much the same way, generations of Argentines feel their country is trapped in a recurring cycle: yet another loan from the International Monetary Fund is arriving to rescue its volatile economy.
It’s the 23rd time this has happened since the 1950s. It occurred during the military dictatorship of the 1970s, the economic and social collapse of 2001, and the banking crisis of 2018. That year, the IMF granted Argentina a US$44-billion loan — the largest in the lender’s history.
Now, under President Javier Milei — an outspoken and eccentric economist determined to dismantle the state to reduce the public deficit — comes another loan, worth US$20 billion.
For many Argentines, it feels all too familiar. “More of the same.” That’s how Ariel Cazorla, a 45-year-old musician, sees it. “We’ve been through this many times before,” he says.
He’s suspicious: “If they’re lending to you, it’s because they think you can pay. I’m sure it has to do with our land. There’s a lot we don’t know, but they talk and negotiate it behind the scenes.”
That mistrust runs through Argentine culture — from Mafalda, the beloved comic strip character created by Quino, to rock lyrics and comedy sketches over the past 50 years.
“IMF officials meet to solve Argentina’s main problem: the IMF,” comedian Pipo Cipolatti famously joked during a show in the 1990s.
In fact, the parallel between Argentina’s debt and Groundhog Day is one that has cropped up occasionally in the local press ever since the film premiered in 1993.
‘Honest’
Milei has promised this time will be different. The money, he insists, is not arriving in extreme circumstances to stop a haemorrhage, but rather to bolster the Central Bank and enable a sustainable lifting of currency controls — a move announced on Friday in tandem with the IMF programme.
“Not once in the past 120 years have we had fiscal order, monetary order, and exchange rate order at the same time,” the President declared in a national broadcast on Friday night.
“Never. This is the first time. So don’t come saying you’ve seen this before, because this time it really is different.”
With an approval rating between 40 and 45 percent, according to polls, some Argentines are backing the president’s gamble.
For Julio Teitelboim, a 60-year-old pensioner, Milei is plugging the hole left in the public coffers by his Peronist predecessor, Alberto Fernández.
“This government has no choice but to turn to the IMF for financing. And they’re doing things right. They’re honest, as far as I’m concerned,” said Julio.
Taming endemic inflation has been Milei’s biggest achievement so far. But on Friday, he got bad news: inflation rose by 3.7 percent in March, up from 2.4 percent recorded the previous month.
Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, now leader of the main Partido Justicialista opposition party, issued a warning to Milei in a post on the X social network, cautioning that asset holders will pull their dollars out of the country.
“It’s the Argentine people who will pay the price of your decisions, your arrogance, and your sell-out,” she wrote.
Dramatic
According to Belén Amadeo, a political scientist at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), debt has become embedded in the national identity.
“Other countries are shaped by the European Union or the United States, because that’s what affects their daily economy. Likewise, the average Argentine knows the country has received IMF loans — and that the IMF imposes conditions,” she told AFP.
“The ‘storytelling’ goes that the IMF is the villain squeezing us to repay a loan at usurious rates,” she added. “There’s a sense of dependency or imperialism. A lot of oversimplification, and people stick with the narrative that politicians put forward.”
Historian Felipe Pigna says IMF loans have historically not been used to develop industry or fund infrastructure — but taken out “purely for financial reasons.”
“Our relationship with the IMF completely determines Argentine life. You can’t build a school because you have to pay the IMF. It’s dramatic,” he told AFP. That’s why, he says, “ordinary Argentinians despise the IMF.”
Pigna adds that the root of the problem is sustainability. “You develop industry, and then you need to import. What do you use to import? Dollars.
“Well, sometimes Argentina’s export revenue isn’t enough to cover its imports. That leads to a negative trade balance — and it’s filled with debt.”
“That’s one of the major bottlenecks people have been talking about since the 1950s,” he said.
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