A top Buenos Aires consultancy firm is forecasting a record year for Argentina's exports, saying they could clear the US$100-billion mark in 2026.
LCG, founded by economist and politician Martín Lousteau and lawyer Esteban Javier Conte Grand, projects exports will hit US$103.74 billion in 2026 – up US$16.6 billion from last year and surpassing the previous record of US$88.85 billion, set in 2022.
Argentina’s trade surplus, LCG says, will top US$20 billion – almost double last year's US$11.32 billion.
The growth is spread across Argentina's four main export categories, with agriculture, energy and mining acting as the principal drivers, said the firm in a report.
The primary sector will contribute around a third of the total increase, led by maize, whose exports will grow more than 50 percent on the back of a record projected harvest of 44 million tonnes, adding US$3 billion. Wheat exports will rise nearly 40 percent on higher volumes and stronger international prices, forecast LCG.
Agriculture and livestock manufactured products will account for 25 percent of the growth, driven by soybean oil, up 34 percent to US$8.5 billion, largely on higher global prices.
The energy sector will contribute a further quarter of the increase, with crude oil exports – buoyed by Middle East tensions – rising from US$6.7 billion to over US$9 billion, combining a six-percent volume increase with prices up nearly 30 percent.
Lithium exports will jump 154 percent, from US$842 million to around US$2.1 billion, as mining projects reach fruition. Gold exports will also rise, purely on higher international prices.
LCG projects imports will fall around three percent, weighed down by weak domestic consumption, industrial activity and investment. The consultancy's analysts flagged translating the export boom into local employment as the medium-term challenge ahead.
– TIMES/NA
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