An opinion poll by Federico González & Asociados consulted 2,000 Argentines, between September 18 and 24, about the main economic proposals of presidential candidates. Some of the most outstanding conclusions showed that even though Javier Milei’s dollarisation plan is losing support, 20 percent of the people believe that, if it materialises, one peso will equal one dollar.
The survey took the form of a structured questionnaire answered online by citizens from throughout the country. The questions included Patricia Bullirich’s proposed bimonetary country; Javier Milei’s dollarisation plan; and Sergio Massa’s continuity with the peso. Results showed that Argentines are divided into thirds, much like the electoral vote: 33.1 percent considers the best economic plan is that of Unión por la Patria; 32.8 percent Juntos por el Cambio’s; and 30.6 percent that of Libertad Avanza.
At any rate, the survey focused on the dollarisation proposal to get to know what people believed the peso would be worth, the impact the plan would have on wages, inflation and the economy in general.
One of the first questions in the study suggested the scenario of a potential referendum to decide whether or not Argentina should dollarise its economy. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed answered they would vote 'yes,' while 56.4 percent leaned towards 'no.' Of those who responded, 7.6 percent said they would cast a blank vote or not vote at all.
The survey included a comparison of results at different times which indicate that Milei's dollarisation proposal has been losing support, especially over the last few weeks.
In May, 41.1 percent of Argentines were in favour of dollarising the economy. In August that figure had risen to 46.9 percent. However, in September support started to dive: in the first week, 40.5 percent accepted the proposal, in the second it was 38.2 percent and in the third 36 percent.
On the flip side, rejection grew. In May, 43.5 percent were against dollarising. In August that number had fallen by one point to 42.4 percent, whereas as of the last week of September that policy has been rejected by over half of Argentines: 56.4 percent.
Another interesting finding of the poll is that over the last few months an increasing number of Argentines has taken a stance on this issue. In April, 15.4 percent of those surveyed had answered they did not know. That figure has now been halved: in the last week of September only 7.8 percent did not answer yes or no.
The survey attempted to delve into the beliefs of Argentines on dollarisation. “If the economy were to be dollarised, do you think one peso would equal one dollar?”, was one of the first questions. 20.1 percent said yes, whereas 71.8 percent said no and 8.1 percent claimed they did not know.
When observing the specifics of that answer, distinctions can be made by party. Among voters of La Libertad Avanza, 34.5 percent believe that in a potential dollarisation of the economy, one peso would be one dollar. That figure drops to 13 percent among followers of Juntos por el Cambio and to 11.4 percent among those of Unión por la Patria.
The study also asked about wages: “Do you believe your salary in dollars would be higher, lower or the same?” 10.7 percent of Argentines answered that it would be higher, 54.1 percent lower, 27.4 percent the same, and eight percent that they did not know.
As for the question of wages, answers varied enormously among followers of the different parties. 28.9 percent of Javier Milei’s voters believed their salary would be higher. On the other hand, only one percent of Patricia Bullrich’s voters believe so and only 0.9 percent of Sergio Massa’s.
In terms of prices, 42.9 percent of Argentines believe dollarisation will make them higher, 12.9 percent lower, 31.9 percent the same, and 12.7 percent do not know.