Economic activity fell 2.9 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month – the biggest monthly fall since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Data released by the INDEC national statistics bureau on Thursday also revealed that Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator, or EMAE, fell 1.4 percent year-on-year when compared to July 2025.
The EMAE measurement has alternated between rises and falls in recent months. Activity increased in four of the seven months recorded so far this year and declined in three.
Compared with the same month in 2025, seven of the 15 sectors that make up the EMAE recorded growth in July.
Fisheries stood out, soaring an incredible 424.5 percent year-on-year, followed by mining and quarrying, up 8.4 percent. Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry rose 0.7 percent. Together, the three sectors contributed a full percentage point to the EMAE's year-on-year change.
Meanwhile, eight sectors recorded declines compared with a year earlier, led by wholesale and retail trade and repairs, which fell 5.1 percent.
That sector, together with manufacturing, down 4.6 percent, dragged the EMAE down by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year.
Facundo Beltramone, an economist at the Fundación Libertad think tank, said the official data "shows a sign of weakness at the margin."
"On a seasonally adjusted basis and compared with June, manufacturing output fell five percent, construction declined 4.6 percent and mining output fell 0.9 percent," he noted.
"Foreign trade showed the same signs: exports fell 4.9 percent and imports 4.5 percent from the previous month. Taken together, the indicators available point to a weak July for economic activity," he said.
However, he said the figures "must be viewed within a trajectory that has shown considerable volatility."
"Seasonally adjusted EMAE rose 0.4 percent in January, fell 2.6 percent in February, rebounded 3.5 percent in March, then fell again by 1.5 percent in April and 0.5 percent in May, before rising 0.8 percent in June. Rather than following a linear trajectory, the economy in 2026 appears to be moving in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between monthly corrections and recoveries," said the expert.
Argentina's government predicted in its recent Budget bill that gross domestic product would expand by 4.5 percent his month. Experts consulted in the Central Bank's most recent REM market expectations survey forecast 2.1 percent growth this year, followed by 2.9 percent next year and three percent in 2028.
–TIMES/NA
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