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ECONOMY | 27-07-2021 17:06

IMF improves Argentina's 2021 growth forecast to 6.4%

Argentina's economy will grow 6.4% in 2021, predicts International Monetary Fund, citing higher export prices and improved vaccination rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday improved its economic growth forecast for Argentina, an upward revision that it attributed to higher export prices and a faster-than-projected Covid-19 vaccination rate.

Argentina's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.4 percent in 2021, according to the Fund, 0.6 percentage points higher than forecast in April. The data came from the IMF's quarterly update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. 

"Argentina has benefitted from a surprising increase in its export prices, while we have seen food prices rise internationally. This positive effect, which comes from the boost in export prices, is helping Argentina's recovery," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said at a press conference.

"I must also add that the deployment of vaccination has been faster than we had previously anticipated," said Petya Koeva-Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's Research Department.

She stressed that after the "collapse" of 9.9 percent in GDP in 2020, the Fund foresees growth of 6.4 percent in Argentina this year, followed by a "moderate" rise to around 2.4 percent in 2022.

The IMF also improved its forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, thanks to upward revisions for Brazil and Mexico, its largest economies. The region's GDP is expected to grow 5.8 percent in 2021, a rise of 1.2 points on April's projection and 3.2 percent in 2022.

This improvement reflects "the boom in the terms of trade in Brazil" and "favourable side effects" in Mexico from better relations with its neighbor the United States, according to the WEO.


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