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ECONOMY | 11-10-2022 17:44

IMF maintains Argentina 2022 growth forecast at 4%

International Monetary Fund maintains outlook for Argentina this year: 4% growth.

The International Monetary Fund has maintained its outlook for Argentina this year in its latest global growth report, forecasting that gross domestic product will rise four percent.

However, the multilateral lender trimmed its projection for 2023 to two percent, in line with government estimates. Back in July, the IMF had predicted growth of three percent for next year.

Forecasts for Argentina’s annual inflation rate were also adjusted. Earlier this year, the IMF predicted price hikes of 43 percent this year, though that estimate now stands at 72.4 percent. For 2023, the Fund sees prices jumping 60 percent, well below private projections of some 30 points higher.

The IMF said that unemployment will remain at around 6.9 percent this year and next, again in line with government estimates. Argentina is expected to record a fiscal deficit of 0.3 percent of gross domestic product in 2022 and a surplus of 0.6 percent next year. 

Global growth is expected to slow further next year, the IMF said Tuesday, downgrading its forecasts as countries grapple with the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, spiralling cost-of-living and economic downturns.

The world economy has been dealt multiple blows, with the war in Ukraine driving up food and energy prices following the coronavirus outbreak, while soaring costs and rising interest rates threaten to reverberate around the globe.

"This year's shocks will re-open economic wounds that were only partially healed post-pandemic," said International Monetary Fund economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in a blog post accompanying the organisation’s latest World Economic Outlook.

More than a third of the global economy is headed for contraction this year or next, and the three biggest economies – the United States, European Union and China – will continue to stall, he warned.

"The worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession," said Gourinchas.

In its report, the IMF trimmed its 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 2.7 percent, 0.2 point down from July expectations. Its world growth forecast for this year remains unchanged at 3.2 percent.

Global inflation is expected to peak at 9.5 percent this year before dropping to 4.1 percent by 2024.



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