Last Wednesday the new Congress kicked off and as it begins its work, so does this series charting its formation since April 12 come to an end, giving the final results of that process (or as final as possible in today’s liquid world).
The new Senate has no less than 13 caucuses but the big picture has 21 senators responding directly to the Javier Milei administration, 26 in the Kirchnerite orbit, 14 in the centre-right and 11 heeding purely provincial interests.
The 13 caucuses align as follows.
While 19 senators now headed by Patricia Bullrich directly carry the Alianza La Libertad Avanza label, the two Jujuy senators enrolled as Partido Renovador Federal are indistinguishable from them in all but name, thus making for the libertarian tally of 21 seats.
The 26 senators in the Kirchnerite or Peronist opposition are formally registered in the following three caucuses reflecting vintage rather than ideological or other differences – Unión por la Patria (11), Frente de Todos (10) and the most recent brand of Fuerza Patria (five). The differences between hardliners and moderates are more to be found within rather than between these caucuses.
Mauricio Macri’s Juntos por el Cambio coalition is long extinct but a dozen senators still carry that label, of whom eight identify with the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) and four with Macri’s centre-right PRO. The two Frente Cambia Mendoza senators responding to that province’s Radical government take the number of Radicals up to 10 and the centre-right total up to 14.
Besides Jujuy and Mendoza (aligned with national parties), six provinces have caucuses not extending beyond their borders. Former four-term governor Gerardo Zamora is accompanied by the province’s two other senators in his Frente Cívico por Santiago. Three other provinces have two senators each: Corrientes (Eco + Vamos Corrientes), Misiones (Frente Renovador de La Concordía-Innovación Federal) and Santa Cruz (Alianza por Santa Cruz). Finally, Senators Julieta Carroza (La Neuquinidad) and Flavia Royón (Primero Los Salteños) are the sole representatives of their governors. No less than eight of the 13 caucuses are thus the faces of single provinces.
No way out of negotiation with this party breakdown. Even pooling the libertarian and centre-right senators would still leave the government two seats short of a majority and not a few Radicals reject Milei almost as strongly as they do Kirchnerism.
Although still the largest bloc, Kirchnerism is even further away from any majority or quorum with scant prospects of finding allies among the other 46 senators. While the smallest of the four broad groups, the 11 provincial senators (not least Zamora) might fancy their chances of being the tail wagging the dog but if they drive too hard a bargain, the government might find easier pickings among a demoralised Peronist opposition.
Unlike in the Senate, Milei commands the largest minority in the lower house. Although there are 257 deputies as against 72 senators, the dozen caucuses in the lower house are actually one less than in the Senate – in large part due to mergers in the jockeying to become the third party between the centre-right and inland deputies. La Libertad Avanza (95 seats) and Fuerza Patria (93) account for three-quarters of the house while the remaining 10 caucuses can be distributed among the following broad groups: deputies responding to provincial governors (41), the centre-right (24) and the left (four).
No less than 12 provinces have deputies neither enlisted in the two main parties nor in the brand-new centre-right hodge-podge renamed Unidos (22 seats). There are a total of 43 deputies in this category but 10 of them are atypical of the inland federalist mainstream. Four of their seats are held in Buenos Aires City or Province (including Martín Lousteau in this capital), four are libertarian mavericks (Marcelo Pagano joined by two inland deputies in País Federal and Mendoza’s Lourdes Arrieta) while the two San Juan deputies of Producción y Trabajo prefer to align with Unidos rather than Provincias Unidas and Natalia de la Sota (Defendamos Córdoba) is at odds with her provincial government.
Provincias Unidas hold most of these seats (22), mainly in Córdoba, Santa Fe and Jujuy apart from the aforementioned exceptions. The Innovación Federal alliance between Misiones and Salta follows with seven deputies. Elijo Catamarca and Tucumán’s Independencia, both basically ex-Peronist, each have a trio of deputies. Finally, La Neuquinidad has a solitary deputy to accompany its single senator. These provincial caucuses are the least stable and could crystallise into new constellations – thus a league of northern governors is reportedly on the way.
Different numbers to the Senate but basically the same situation prevails – the government lacks the numbers for quorum even with a centre-right not always on its side while Kirchnerism is basically friendless except for the four leftist deputies. Provincial deputies have every reason to aspire to the balance of power but could push their luck.
Last weekend this column looked individually at the 24 senators elected last October and concluded that over half of them were complete unknowns. The remaining space will be used to perform the same exercise on the 127 deputies elected. Of the 127, only 27 triggered any kind of name recognition with fully 100 unknown to all but the most specialised media, never mind the general public.
The list includes ex-governors (Córdoba’s Juan Schiaretti and Oscar Herrera of Misiones), ex-ministers (Luis Petri and Agustín Rossi, both Defence, Jorge Taina heading Fuerza Patria in Buenos Aires Province, Lousteau, Kelly Olmos, Alejandro Finocchiaro), trade unionists (Hugo Moyano Jr, Sergio Palazzo, Vanesa Siley and Hugo Yasky) and leftist firebrands (Myriam Bregman, Nicolás del Caño and Romina del Plá, all with experience as deputies for Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores (FIT), social activist Juan Grabois and Itai Hagman topping a City Fuerza Patria list also including the emblematic name of Lucía Cámpora).
Only five of the 64 libertarian candidates winning seats were previously known – Karina Milei’s Buenos Aires Province factotum Sebastián Pareja placing ex-starlet Karen Reichardt high on his list, magistrate Alejandro Fargosi topping the City List which included re-elected deputy Sabrina Ajmechet, a Bullrich sidekick, and Diego Hartfield in Misiones (more known for tennis). The few remaining names include Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s former parish priest Father Juan Carlos Molina with an upset win in Santa Cruz, as well as two names linked to 2023 Peronist presidential candidate Sergio Massa – his brother-in-law Sebastián Galmarini and his right-hand man Guillermo Michel. A key Macri aide Fernando de Andreis, Santa Fe Lieutenant-Governor Gisela Scaglia and De la Sota round out the list.
Let us now leave them to it. The “Campaign Comments” slug will be retained one more week to write about tomorrow’s run-off in Chile and other recent voting around the region while “Beyond the Headlines” will return early next year but after 36 columns this space has nothing more to say on the midterms dominating the year now coming to an end.
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