News of election 2025 analysis

Is Kast caste?

20-12-2025 07:31 While Bolivia, Honduras and now Chile have all swung right in recent voting, Trump’s pet candidate in each nation had problems riding the crest of the wave.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The curtain falls … and rises

13-12-2025 09:17 The new Senate has no less than 13 caucuses but the big picture has 21 senators responding directly to the Javier Milei administration, 26 in the Kirchnerite orbit, 14 in the centre-right and 11 heeding purely provincial interests.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

And so it (almost) ends

06-12-2025 06:00 Quite apart from the uncertainties over Lorena Villaverde’s Senate entry, Congress has been the scene of musical chairs with its first minority changing in the course of this week.

by Michael Soltys

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The tectonic fracture of Argentina’s economy

29-11-2025 05:20 This is a game-changer for Argentina’s economy, anticipated for years and slowly happening. Milei has contributed to this outcome, but it is not solely the result of his actions. He is, however, the President that – if he does things right – will benefit from it.

by Marcelo J. García

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Disunited provinces II

29-11-2025 05:13 La Libertad Avanza won in 15 of 23 provinces, including the largest, with Tucumán the most important outside the fold. Opposition candidates only enjoyed a clear lead in half their provinces won, although LLA margins were extremely slender in four of their 15 victories, including the main prize of Buenos Aires Province.

Campaign comments

The City and the Senate

15-11-2025 05:05 While the government’s overall midterm triumph represented a huge shift from gloomy pre-electoral expectations, this city’s results did not show that much change from last May’s local voting.

by Michael Soltys

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Two abysses

05-11-2025 10:29 Society voted no twice. No to the future being offered by Milei (September) and no to the past offered by Peronism (October). Dissatisfaction with everybody. In not opting for the alternatives to polarisation, the voters gave an extra life to the government and Peronism. A respite.

by Jorge Fontevecchia

POLITICS – ANALYSIS

What to do with a problem like Cristina?

04-11-2025 13:58 For a decade now, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and those aligned with her have been — fairly or unfairly — a negative symbol for a majority of society. Just as there is a hard core who respect or idolise her, there are broad sectors who would never again vote for any candidate backed by her.

by Gustavo González

Campaign comments

The colour purple

01-11-2025 06:10 Despite governing the province for 34 of the last 42 years, the Peronists ran up a hat-trick of national midterm defeats there last Sunday – in 2017, in 2021 and in 2025.

by Michael Soltys

ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS

Two-faced Milei: a second chance, but also a risk for Argentina

01-11-2025 06:10 Will Milei take advantage of the opportunity he has been granted in order to pursue a constructive political and economic agenda? Or will he use his newfound power to double down on his plan with no corrections?

by Agustino Fontevecchia

MARKET REACTION

As Argentina surges back, peso shows limit to Milei euphoria

28-10-2025 10:46 Argentina officials have repeatedly said they aren’t planning on enacting any changes to the current exchange-rate policy. As trading wore on Monday, the currency steadily pulled back from its early morning surge.

ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS

Why Argentines backed Milei in the midterm elections

27-10-2025 12:40 Javier Milei pulled off a stunning win in Sunday's midterm elections, boosting his flagging reform agenda. After two years of economic hardship, why did voters back the La Libertad Avanza leader at the polls?

ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS

Voters hand Milei belated birthday present, post-mortem for Peronism overdue

27-10-2025 00:21 Peronism’s renovation is well overdue. It seems Argentines would much rather carry on along Milei’s path of uncertainty and sacrifice than go back to reach the future.

by James Grainger

ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS

Electoral blank cheque – is the worst version of Milei yet to come?

26-10-2025 23:45 It was a victory that neither the polls nor the government itself predicted expected, but it carries a danger: with it. Will the President radicalise further after receiving this vote of confidence?

by Franco Lindner

ELECTIONS 2025: ANALYSIS

Milei, the two Caputos and the two anchors

25-10-2025 06:08 Milei and the two Caputos have the path laid out for them. The “two anchors” that will give them a future are tied to applying the necessary adaptations to the economic policy plan and creating the conditions for circumstantial legislative majorities. This situation appears possible under any electoral scenario, even a potent Peronist victory.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

151 shades of grey

25-10-2025 05:58 Voters are being asked to select not the next president but 127 deputies and 24 senators for which 217 lists are contending in the 23 provinces and this City with a total 1,648 candidates. The multiplicity of combinations arising from these numbers points to an infinity of results, each one of which would make the parliamentary negotiations lying ahead slightly different with no chance of any overall majority – 151 shades of grey.

by Michael Soltys

ANALYSIS

On raucous outsiders and statesmen

18-10-2025 06:47 The Milei administration has shown time and time again they lack the capacity to build sustainable political alliances and that stubbornness on the economic front has led to the repetition of mistakes from the recent past. The President has shown that when political momentum is on his side, he abuses good fortune to castigate political opponents and preach cultural war.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Yankees come home

18-10-2025 06:26 Exactly 20 years ago next month, Washington silently retreated from the region. Now it’s coming back, in full swing.

by Marcelo J. García

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Trump card or joker in the pack?

18-10-2025 06:15 Milei’s government is confident of success in only seven of Argentina's 24 districts but this fails to point out that fears of defeat are also only limited to seven provinces, with the other 10 up in the air.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

‘Panic Show’ name of the game

11-10-2025 06:00 We are told that the choice is “libertad or kirchnerismo” but neither libertarians nor Kirchnerism will be able to do very much with the 110 of the 257 seats accruing to whoever wins – Argentina’s middle ground has far less seats than Brazil’s "centrão" but could carry equivalent clout.

by Michael Soltys

POLITICS & CORRUPTION

Espert's dirty financing

04-10-2025 06:45 On José Luis Espert’s ties with a suspected drug dealer and the libertarian obsession with coin.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

A spooky Halloween earlier this month?

04-10-2025 06:38 To lay any claim to a positive result, pundits suggest that Milei would need to be the leading minority with at least 35 percent of the vote. The first objective looks like a done deal since LLA is the only nationwide contender.

by Michael Soltys

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What comes after Javier Milei?

04-10-2025 06:22 The six governors who form the Provincias Unidas group are working on the assumption that Milei will not have a second term, just like his two predecessors. The question is what comes next?

by Marcelo J. García

Campaign comments

The future’s not ours to see

27-09-2025 06:25 Mayoral tails wagged gubernatorial and presidential dogs in Buenos Aires Province but next month’s midterms stand to be genuinely, not synthetically national with the state of the economy and the quality of governance deciding votes.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The lion sleeps tonight

20-09-2025 06:31 Milei actually polled a higher percentage in Buenos Aires Province this month than in BA City last May, yet the former is unanimously deemed an unmitigated disaster while the latter was a resounding triumph.

by Michael Soltys

Analysing Argentina

Wake Milei up when September ends

20-09-2025 06:25 Both the economy and the politics of the country are telling President Milei he cannot fly solo anymore.

by Marcelo J. García

ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS

How Milei raised the bar and paid the price in Buenos Aires Province

13-09-2025 06:54 The market and the political ecosystem, seems to have recalibrated its expectations, putting further financial pressure on the government.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Campaign comments

Blast from the past

13-09-2025 06:09 Last Sunday’s election was very much the mayoral tail wagging the dog and here we’re not just talking about Greater Buenos Aires Peronist “barons” – almost the only successes of third parties came thanks to the PRO mayors bucking the Milei alliance, proving mayoral clout beyond the general trend.

by Michael Soltys

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Ex-Peronist politicians at heart of La Libertad Avanza’s defeat in BA Province

11-09-2025 15:08 Ruling party’s leader in the district, Sebastián Pareja, and Moreno mayoral candidate Ramón Vera are Peronists who made themselves indispensable for the Mileis in the Buenos Aires Province structure. Yet theylost out in an election which the government had presented as a key test of national governance.

by Juan Cruz Soqueira

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE

Election analysis: Peronism scores wins in districts for first time in 20 years

10-09-2025 13:44 Fuerza Patria finished top in the Second and Fourth Sections of Buenos Aires Province; La Libertad Avanza claimed victory in only two, the Fifth, centred on Mar del Plata, and the Sixth, with Bahía Blanca the main city.

ELECTIONS 2025: ANALYSIS

Brow-beaten Milei nears Argentina's 'third year' syndrome

08-09-2025 20:48 Milei is still around 90 days short of the start of his third year, but the defeat in the Buenos Aires Province election means the countdown to the nationwide October 26 midterms is on.

by Jorge Fontevecchia

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The endogenous crises of Javier Milei

06-09-2025 07:13 The crises the government is suffering from are endogenous – their origin lies in Milei and his team’s decision to fly solo with their economic and political strategies.

by Marcelo J. García

POLITICS & CORRUPTION

Greedy and corrupt libertarians?

23-08-2025 06:15 Smear campaign tactics are a defining characteristic of the Argentine political ecosystem during the electoral season. Corruption has risen as a preoccupation for everyday citizens, but it is still the economy that will determine whether or not Milei is successful.

by Agustino Fontevecchia

Campaign comments

Jousting in the lists

16-08-2025 06:30 In broad terms, President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza will be flying solo in half the country whereas Peronism is presenting a united front in three-quarters of the districts, including all the most important except Córdoba.

by Michael Soltys

ECONOMY – ANALYSIS

Inflation ticked up slightly last month, less than expected

14-07-2025 18:54 Inflation ticked up slightly but less than expected in June, another win for President Javier Milei ahead of midterm elections.

Editorial

Liberty not advancing for everybody

21-06-2025 06:37 Confirmation of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s prison sentence has gifted an increasingly divided Peronism a cause around which to rally in unity, but in the long term this cause may only serve to deepen the divisions.

ANALYSIS

Inflation and the ballot box: Milei bets on falling prices to win votes

18-06-2025 12:46 Monthly CPI and wholesale rates are now central to the government’s election strategy – but questions are mounting over purchasing power and price-controlled services.

by Gonzalo Martínez

POLITICS – ANALYSIS

CFK's return risks dividing opposition in boon for Milei

03-06-2025 14:22 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's decision to run in September’s legislative elections in Buenos Aires Province will set the stage for the national midterm vote the following month.

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Where angels fear to tread

31-05-2025 06:33 The demolition job suffered by PRO in the City has most provinces now thinking twice about advancing their elections and exposing local hegemonies to the forces of heaven.

by Michael Soltys

Analysing Argentina

Milei chooses to ignore emerging consensuses

31-05-2025 06:23 With less than five months to the midterm vote, nothing seems to be standing in the way of a good result for the government. But Milei 2025 should already start thinking about Milei 2027

by Marcelo J. García

ELECTIONS 2025: BUENOS AIRES CITY

30% in the City – just how well did La Libertad Avanza do?

20-05-2025 16:34 All the polls point to an Argentina split down the middle. Within those two universes increasingly extreme stances coexist on both sides.

OPINION & ANALYSIS

New songs and Peronism

10-05-2025 07:50 Kirchnerism has no lyrics for its new songs – every intervention by CFK against Milei is always geared to the economic terrain, but from the perspective of his collapse and not improving on his achievements.

by Jorge Fontevecchia

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Four-by-four voting

10-05-2025 07:20 Next weekend’s City race hogs the electoral limelight but there is voting even closer in time – like tomorrow when four provinces will be advancing their midterms.

by Michael Soltys