Election analysis: Peronism scores wins in districts for first time in 20 years

The results of last Sunday’s midterms in Buenos Aires Province were surprising, most of all for Peronist victories in some electoral sections far removed from the urban centres – overall, Fuerza Patria won in four of the six inland sections.

The Second and Fourth Sections were where the Peronist force’s wins came as a surprise because greater parity had been estimated, with President Javier Milei even given better chances. Both territories had been adverse to Peronism since 2005, when the Frente para la Victoria label had triumphed. They form part of the core agricultural zone in the north and west of the province.

In the Fourth Section, which borders on La Pampa and contains 19 municipalities, Peronism also put paid to the ambitions of Somos Buenos Aires, the UCR-led alliance with ambitions of presenting itself as an alternative to polarisation. Their list was headed by the Junín PRO Mayor Pablo Petrecca with the third spot going to the mayor of Chivilcoy, the local independent Guillermo Britos. But not even this could perform up to expectations. 

The district consists of the municipalities of Alberti, Bragado, Carlos Casares, Carlos Tejedor, Chacabuco, Chivilcoy, Florentino Ameghino, General Arenales, General Pinto, General Viamonte, General Villegas, Hipólito Yrigoyen, Junín, Leandro N. Alem, Lincoln, Nueve de Julio, Pehuajó, Rivadavia and Trenque Lauquen.

La Cámpora’s Diego Videla headed Fuerza Patria which finished 10 points ahead of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) with 40.32 percent as against 30.3 percent for the libertarians united with PRO, while Somos Buenos Aires were around 20 percent. In the same territory four years ago the Peronists had garnered 16 less point than Juntos por el Cambio by itself. There seven Senate seats were at stakes: Fuerza Patria took three, LLA two and Somos Buenos Aires the other two. 
 

Tight victory in the second

In the Second the Peronist success was even tighter. Diego Nanni polled 35.42 percent as against 29.79 percent for the LLA’s Natalia Blanco.

The Seventh Section, grouping municipalities in the middle of the province like Azul, Olavarría, Bolívar, Roque Pérez, Saladillo, 25 de Mayo, Tapalqué and General Alvear also gave victory to those responding to Governor Axel Kicillof with María Inés Laurini’s 38.23 percent picking up all three senate seats at stake while La Libertad Avanza obtained 50,696 votes or 32.84 percent.

Not even the presence of presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni’s brother Francisco served for a La Libertad Avanza win in the Eighth Section, which consists of the provincial capital of La Plata. The LLA totalled 36.63 percent of the votes with Fuerza Patria headed by Juan Ariel Archanco finishing on top with 43.91 percent.

Libertarian triumphs

The numbers favoured Milei’s party in the Fifth and Sixth Sections. 

The key to the Fifth was the man heading its list, a PRO heavyweight, Guillermo Montenegro, the Mayor of General Pueyrredón (Mar del Plata) who won with 41.68 percent over Fuerza Patria (with Fernanda Raverta, the former head of ANSeS social security administration) who obtained 37.49 percent.

In the Sixth, in the extreme south of the province, the LLA’s Oscar Liberman finished with 41.71 percent as against 34.68 percent for Alejandro Dichiara. 

One of the most remarkable numbers was in the city of Bahía Blanca, a city hit by a tremendous storm earlier this year with the Milei government refusing to approve extra funds for the reconstruction of essential works for the city, since the LLA obtained 46.6 percent while the people of Bahía Blanca left Dichiara with a bit under 30 percent, Somos Buenos Aires with 9.15 percent and the Frente de Izquierda with 4.55 percent.