Is Milei's star beginning to fade?

The world is at a crossroads, threatened by existential risks, from global wars to climate change. At the same time, it is experiencing some of the fastest bouts of innovation in history. These multiple vectors paint a contradictory picture of the future, whether it is a time of absolute bonanza where humans will progressively reduce the number of hours dedicated to labour as they eradicate poverty and serious disease, or a future dystopia where either nuclear war, rising sea levels, or a robot revolution could lead to global extinction. 

But as world leaders congregated in New York in the context of the United Nations General Assembly to discuss the future, Argentina’s President Javier Milei made his way to the planetary summit with a different set of priorities, once again positioning himself as a true outsider, this time on the global stage.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate the dogmatic Milei from the savvy politician, as the wild-haired economist evolves in the political arts. His prepared remarks echoed a visit to Davos and the World Economic Forum early into his Presidency, when he wooed the global business elite with an anti-socialist speech that resounded closely with the agenda of the one-percent. At the United Nations General Assembly this week, Milei added his attacks on multilateralism, indicating that the “Pact for the Future” and the new sustainable development goals were also part of a “socialist supranational government programme” coming from “a multi-tentacled leviathan.” He also announced the end of Argentina’s historical position of neutrality, claiming instead he would pursue an “agenda of freedom.” 

Milei received the applause, and the social media love, of the global “New Right,” including the usual photo-op with Elon Musk, who continues to promise he will invest in Argentina (and little more). But there was limited substance regarding some of the biggest and most complex global issues that defined the agenda in New York, including the war between Russia and Ukraine. Milei did, however, pledge his support for Israel once again as the conflict in the Middle East looks set to escalate. The anarcho-capitalist denied human influence in climate change, while noting that the 2030 agenda would only worsen the issues of poverty, inequality, and discrimination.

The President of Argentina has more urgent problems on the domestic front. While his overseas travels have served in the past to prop up his image stateside, showing to his social media followers that he can showcase Argentina to global leaders, supposedly interested in helping the country through foreign direct investment, priorities have begun to shift as economic activity remains deep in recession territory, with few signs of an imminent recovery. While Milei – working with Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo – has been successful in the battle against inflation, repeating the budget surplus mantra, Argentine society is feeling the bite of a stubborn economic retraction that is leaving its mark on poverty and unemployment. 

Opinion polls continue to show strong support for Milei, yet disapproval figures are on the rise, as are pessimistic expectations of the future. All of these troubling signs are only natural given the everyday wear and tear of running a government, particularly in such a vertical structure where the President is essentially the only public figure of this government. Sister Karina, his presidential chief-of-staff, and star political advisor Santiago Caputo prefer to stay behind the stage, while the Cabinet is afraid to stick its neck out – political decapitations are a house specialty. Yet, unless Milei and Caputo can muster some sort of impact, whether it’s through sustained macroeconomic improvement or micro-growth that the population can feel in their wallet, the going will get tough.

As leading political strategist Jaime Durán Barba recently put it in a private livestream with Perfil’s digital subscribers, the trick of trying to distract the population by controlling the media’s agenda is extremely effective, but only lasts a short amount of time. Ultimately, an effective communications strategy must be rooted in reality, and generally people worry about their own personal well-being more than anything else. Thus, when it’s hard to make ends meet, the sanctity of the budget surplus becomes ephemeral. Furthermore, as time goes by, Milei, Caputo and Presidential Spokesman Manuel Adorni — being vetted as a potential candidate for next year’s midterm elections alongside Patricia Bullrich and José Luis Espert — are finding that the argument of blaming Kirchnerism is becoming less effective.

In part, that could explain the current onslaught against state airline Aerolineas Argentinas, as the Milei administration pushes for the privatisation of the company once again. It’s popular among their voters, and was also a banner issue for former president Mauricio Macri, given that it puts the inefficiencies of the state bureaucracy front and centre of the debate. It also allows the government to point the finger for people’s suffering at one of their favourite opponents: unions. This may have been a response to the high-risk strategy of vetoing an updated formula for calculating retirement and pension payments. While every administration plays with this variable, it is extremely unpopular to bring our grannies into the political battleground. The idea of organising an asado for the “heroes” that upheld the veto in the name of a balanced budget, charging them 20,000 pesos (which is roughly what the updated formula added to retirees’ meagre pensions) was nothing short of a horror show, and a horrible political strategy, according to Durán Barba.

This week we also saw the return of Pope Francis to the mortal realm of Argentine politics. In the context of an official visit to Vatican City by his protégé Juan Grabois, the Holy See leader criticised Security Minister Patricia Bullrich’s anti-picket protocol, particularly in the aftermath of protests that occurred outside Congress during the debate regarding the updated pension formula. Francis went back to being Jorge Bergoglio, noting that the state spent more on tear gas than on social welfare, while also speaking about an unspecified case of corruption. An able politician, Francis has managed to keep himself generally above the political terrain in Argentina, making strategic appearances that are oft interpreted but never truly deciphered. Measuring the impact of the Pope’s words, the Milei administration chose to stand down, a rare decision, despite some libertarian chatter on the interwebs. Francis has continuously suggested he would visit his homeland at some point in what would be his long-awaited return to Argentina, but this now doesn’t look so likely.

Milei’s star appears to be beginning to fade. In Durán Barba’s words, no-one wins elections just because they are good on Twitter, and Milei was much more than that: versed in modern communications tools, with a solid strategy, and a genuine candidate. That’s how he won the election. The first economist to become president in Argentina, he is banking on a rebound that has remained elusive thus far. The risks will only increase until people begin to feel the improvement, if they ever do. Fortunately for him, the opposition is in disarray.