Move over Javi, the Big Boss is back

Donald Trump’s potent electoral victory consolidates the “new right” paradigm in the United States and across the globe, blowing wind into the sails of his devoted followers, including Argentina’s Javier Milei. 

The international wave of right-wing populists – all of them pulling pages from the billionaire US president-elect’s playbook – was already an undisputed fact. Now, Trump has proven to them that, even after being down and out, such leaders hold a magnetic sway over the population, allowing them to return to power against all odds, including criminal convictions and assassination attempts – or perhaps because of them. Once again, none of this is new, but a return of the undisputed “top dog” of the new right will consolidate a global movement that, up until now, appeared to be somewhat disjointed. Milei even has the audacity of calling himself the most popular expression of the “ideas of freedom” in the world – move over, Javi, the boss is back in business. The implications, both domestic and abroad in terms of the United States, will be meaningful, particularly for Argentina which, under Milei, has pledged full allegiance to the flag, and to Trump.

To a certain extent, the Democratic Party is a victim of its own success, particularly that registered by former US president Barack Obama. Not only did Trump ultimately become a politically relevant player in the aftermath of the Tea Party movement (which was an anti-Obama movement in essence), Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was a direct consequence of his association with the first black president of the United States. Even in this election, once Kamala Harris pushed Biden aside to become the selected successor, Barack and Michelle Obama were the main attraction of the Democratic rallies, along with celebrity musicians. At the end of the day, Kamala Harris never became an attractive candidate, failing to differentiate herself from the Biden administration and its perceived weaknesses — particularly inflation — while at the same time never projecting herself as a centrist moderate that would apply a common sense solution to Trump’s proposed radicalisation. Fears of her very recent past as a champion of the “radical left” agenda were never dissipated, either. Thus, she ended up being a sort of amorphous container for the different brands of Democrats that exist out there, unsuccessfully representing them all.

Trump, on the other hand, remained true to his character, doubling down on traits that have historically been perceived as toxic in the realm of politics. With him, as with Milei, such things actually add value, proving that the person behind the politician is the same. They are genuine in their political incorrectness, which is a very attractive feature for electorates who are disillusioned and pissed off with the status quo and who inform themselves mainly on social media. Recently, former president Mauricio Macri — who boasts of his friendship with Trump — said that the Argentine people knew they were voting for someone with a very particular type of “psychology” to whom they granted a destructive mandate. Applying the same concepts to the US election, the first part of the statement is undoubtedly true, but are the people really aware that they are electing someone who plans to dismantle the current makeup of the political ecosystem based on liberal democracy, without any idea as to what to replace it with?

Most analysts agree that this version of Trump is a reloaded one, compared to the one who took the White House in 2016. Added to the hands-on experience gained from being US commander-in-chief, The Donald will also count on control of both chambers of the US Congress, which will be populated by his allies. He also has the support of a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. The way in which Trump has dominated the Republican party, reconfiguring in his image, is an important portion of his success, something that neither Milei nor Macri can hope for in Argentina. Without the possibility of re-election, Trump will be thinking about his legacy, according to political strategist Luis Rosales, who participated in the campaign. One such legacy is the respawning of the Republican party under the Trump doctrine, which is more a style than an ideology.

Are we talking about an exceptional person here? Someone “out of the norm”? Probably not, outside of his capacity to draw attention to himself. In the same way as Milei is nothing more than another politician, even if he does consider himself the chosen one. Trump will lay out a plan for how to restructure the state, put his “America first” economic agenda into motion, and realign Washington’s foreign policy, moving closer to Putin and even more antagonistic with China. What are the implications for Argentina? Milei, who barely knows Trump but has been called “MAGA” by him, probably expects that his unconditional alignment with the US and the conceptual affinity between their movements will lead to special benefits in the bilateral relationship. Macri already took advantage of his friendship with The Donald during his presidency, receiving the largest bailout in the history of the International Monetary Fund without proper oversight, at least according to Maurice Claver-Carone, a Trump ally. Now, Milei and Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo will be looking for another helping hand in the shape of fresh funds and friendly revisions to Argentina’s programme. There’s also the issue of international litigation, with US Judge Loretta Preska holding the reins of the all-important YPF nationalisation case, where Argentina is facing a US$16-billion bill. There’s others too, all of which could be closing during Milei’s Presidency, increasing potential default risk. And, of course, the sovereign debt.

It isn’t clear whether Milei and his anarcho-libertarians will get a helping hand from Papa Trump, but it is evident that Latin America is not really on their agenda. The one who does have an eye out for Argentina is billionaire Elon Musk, whose Tesla cars need lithium batteries, while Starlink could provide connectivity throughout the country’s vast territory. He is said to be interested in spectrum and fibre-optic cables currently in the hands of Arsat, Argentina’s national telecommunications company that Milei, Caputo, and star advisor Santiago ‘Kremlin Magician’ Caputo want to privatise. It is said that as Milei was trying to get a hold of Trump to congratulate him, they had to rely on Elon to make the connection. 

Musk, who is beginning to look like the Federico Sturzenegger of the Trump administration, is a keen businessman who quickly saw the potential in both Javier Milei and Donald Trump during this political cycle. Ultimately, he’ll be having the last laugh.