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ECONOMY | 19-01-2022 08:14

Barclays: Argentina's needed stabilisation plan 'unlikely' soon

Argentina needs "an ambitious plan" for sustainable growth that includes a fiscal consolidation plan, monetary reform and structural reforms, says Barclays economist.

Argentina needs "an ambitious plan" for sustainable growth that includes a fiscal consolidation plan, monetary reform and structural reforms, Pilar Tavella, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc said in an e-mail interview.

Such a plan is "unlikely" to be implemented "in the next two years."

The "accumulation of imbalances that need to be corrected" will limit growth, Tavella said. 

The recent deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook could create additional challenges in talks between Argentina and the IMF, he said.

Central Bank transfers to the Treasury in December rose sharply, he added, and could increase pressure on the exchange rate gap.

Crop production estimates have been reduced due to excessive drought. "The delay in announcing and implementing an economic programme is primarily Argentina's problem," the economist said. 

Barclays sees an IMF agreement in March as the "most likely scenario", although there are "some risks" of the country falling behind on payments. "There is uncertainty about whether the coalition government will be willing to implement the necessary adjustments," she said.

 

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by Jorgelina do Rosario, Bloomberg

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