Tension has been building within the once impenetrable “iron triangle” composed of President Javier Milei, his sister and chief-of-staff Karina and controversial political strategist Santiago Caputo.
Karina is achieving total victory over her political rivals, from the Macris to “Caputito,” as Santiago is mockingly called for his supposed young age (he recently turned 40). First, she managed to impose her will by deciding that political strategy wouldn’t be run by the consultant but rather by her trusted lieutenants: Lower House Speaker Martin Menem and her key advisor Eduardo ‘Lule’ Menem. They will be responsible for the libertarian coalition’s national strategy, while Sebastián Pareja is to lead the charge in the “mother of all battles,” as Buenos Aires Province is known due to its massive share of the electorate. Caputo, who no longer participates in the highest-level meetings (as journalist Javier Calvo confirmed in Perfil last week), has been relegated merely to his role as a political and communications consultant from the Jaime Durán Barba school of thought.
At the same time, the advisor’s extended network of power within the Milei administration is to be audited and reduced. Sources within the government have told Perfil that the Menems are encroaching on Caputo’s turf, with the clear intention of stripping him of his political and economic responsibilities. Communications could be one of the first to be snatched from Caputito’s grip, and there’s talk of the infamous SIDE spy agency also being revoked from his sphere of influence. These power struggles were reported on by journalist Giselle Leclerq, who confirmed the ongoing total confrontation within the “iron triangle.” It is difficult to imagine that Caputo will come out of this one unharmed, particularly as the final powerbroker is none other than Javier himself. Caputo has already anticipated his exit from the administration, hinting that whenever it happens, it won’t be peaceful.
One of the elements of this battle is being played out in plain sight and causing much harm to the government’s credibility. The February arrival to Buenos Aires of conservative think tank CPAC’s Latin American coordinator, Laura Belén Arrieta, onboard a private jet owned by the mysterious Leonardo Scatturice with 10 undeclared pieces of luggage blew the lid off of a potentially larger scandal. In a recent cover story for Noticias, Rodis Recalt detailed the network of companies owned and operated by Scatturice that hold multi-million-peso contracts with the state. The alleged former spy is also one of the Argentine gatekeepers to the Florida MAGA world of Donald Trump, from which Milei derives part of his global legitimacy with the rest of the “new right” and the political favour of the US Treasury Department, which controls the International Monetary Fund.
Scatturice has also signed a lobbying contract to represent Argentina’s agencies with their US counterparts. All of this makes it even more suspicious that an employee of his was caught red-handed being escorted through customs and immigration controls without any basic checks, VIP style, with 10 suitcases following behind. Furthermore, Scatturice has seen exponential growth in his wealth and power and has direct connections with media heavyweight Daniel Hadad, owner of the popular Infobae outlet and a family member of another of Arrieta’s employers, Mario De La Fuente. There are multiple question-marks regarding their relationship.
The case promises to keep generating juicy headlines, and given Scatturice’s close proximity to Caputo, should affect him proportionally. Some suggest it is part of a below-the-belt “operation” against Caputo by his political enemies, namely, the Menems. Indeed, the response came almost immediately when news reports surfaced regarding the Menem family’s multiple business dealings with the government, many of them signed very recently such as Tech Security’s four-billion-peso contract with Banco Nación. Conflicts of interest and caste-like behaviour across the board.
The Scatturice incident also led to a media counter-offensive and censorship in different outlets, along with the firing of some high-profile names. At Radio con Vos, Jairo Straccia had emerged as a critical voice of the Milei administration. His show was recently cancelled and he was pushed out of the station under pressure for his coverage, including that of the Scatturice ordeal. Journalist Julian D’Imperio reported that case and another involving Mariano Hamilton, who was fired from the C5N cable news channel. This wouldn’t be the first time the Casa Rosada has used its influence to silence journalists who touch on issues they are uncomfortable with. Early into Milei’s presidency, C5N informally accepted that it should lower the tone of its coverage of the issue of the President’s dogs, his sister, as well as coverage of Caputo, as Juan Luis García has reported. Even after promising to eradicate official advertising budgets, the Milei administration has used state-owned companies including, YPF, Aerolíneas Argentinas and Banco Nación to reward those who comply and punish dissenters.
The civil war within the iron triangle is occurring in the heat of the electoral campaign. Karina has subjugated the Macris, former president Mauricio and Buenos Aires City Mayor Jorge. They entered into a coalition with the ruling party in the City and Province to confront Kirchnerite Peronism where La Libertad Avanza imposed almost every condition. The Mileis are expanding the electoral reach of their coalition to the outer limits of what was once PRO’s turf, threatening the very existence of the party run by the Macris. They’ve absorbed certain key players including last election’s presidential ticket, Patricia Bullrich and Luis Petri and in Buenos Aires Province have snatched multiple municipalities. Milei and his acolytes are confident they will win by a landslide in the October national midterm elections, while they could have a good showing in September’s local elections in Buenos Aires Province, particularly with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner barred from running and a fragmented Peronist field.
Even the most optimistic libertarian acknowledges that it is impossible for them to secure enough legislators to guarantee quorum or their own majorities. A pollster recently called them “minimalists,” noting they are seeking to protect Milei’s veto power, which translates into a third of the chamber plus one vote, or 87 deputies. Milei has already faced multiple veto showdowns with Congress, indicating that he will not negotiate his budget surplus. This is particularly relevant as the economy is showing multiple signs of running out of steam, forcing Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo and Central Bank Governor Santiago Bausili to resort to aggressively high interest rates. These have a direct impact on credit and on economic output, meaning Milei and Caputo have decided to prioritise keeping the peso-dollar exchange rate contained to try and keep a lid on inflation in exchange for a more recessionary situation.
A little less than three months out from the election, it is getting tense for the Milei administration and the country in general. The President is placing his political project on the line, knowing that he needs to deliver electorally if he wants to keep his re-election dreams alive. As the economic damage continues to spread, his electorate will begin to doubt their decision to put him in the Casa Rosada, which means the clock is ticking. He counts on the support of the United States and the implicit help of the opposition, which cannot come up with anything to stand up to him at this juncture. But unforced errors abound.
Comments