The Supreme Court has painted itself into a corner. It’s sitting on one of the most consequential rulings in Argentina’s political history, one it has procrastinated over for quite some time. Now things seem to have sped up, forcing it to make decisions that inevitably will be interpreted as political, even though on paper the justices of the nation’s highest tribunal have attempted to avoid being dragged into the limelight.
The case, of course, involves Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and a complex web of corruption that, according to provisional Attorney-General Eduardo Casal included an illicit association – a charge similar to racketeering – and should result in a sentence to 12 years behind bars for the Peronist leader. While the former president, vice-president, senator and national deputy would almost certainly avoid any real prison time given her age (72) and serve her sentence under house arrest instead, what’s really at stake here is her recently announced candidacy for a seat in the local legislature for the third electoral sector in Buenos Aires Province, the epicentre of Kirchnerite and Peronist support in the Conurbano or the densely populated ring of municipalities and districts encircling Buenos Aires City.
The three Supreme Court Justices – Horacio Rosati, Carlos Rosenkrantz, and Ricardo Lorenzetti –are holding a “Sword of Damocles” of sorts over Fernández de Kirchner’s neck. Confirmation of the guilty ruling would bar her from public office, therefore ejecting her from the election. While they’ve had ample time to figure out whether to make this ruling, or sit on it until after the elections, recent events suggest things are accelerating: Lorezentti had indicated that the Court would act soon, sparking a reaction from Cristina’s legal team, which attempted to push him off the case, to no avail. Then, it asked Casal for an opinion, which they’ve received and, as expected, it was one that ups the ante, increasing the sentence from six to 12 years in prison. The table has been set and dinner served.
Yet the risks remain extremely high. Confirmation of a guilty ruling before the election would immediately prohibit Fernández de Kirchner from competing, thereby instantaneously confirming to her followers their long-held belief that she has been the victim of legal persecution. The “lawfare” argument would elevate her to martyr status and the Peronist marketing machine would latch on to the concept of the statute of limitations, associating Fernández de Kirchner with Juan Domingo Perón himself, probably reconstructing some of the political capital that has been consumed. This would generate the conditions for CFK to avoid going into a municipal election in order to try and remain in the match, both against Javier Milei’s libertarians and her former protégé, Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof, while giving her a platform to once again concentrate on playing the role of the major opposition leader to President Javier Milei’s national government. Cristina has already indicated that she will appeal the expected guilty ruling at the Inter-American Court for Human Rights in Costa Rica, meaning that the legal battle will extend beyond this electoral cycle regardless.
At the same time, action or inaction from the Supreme Court will be read as political. Prima facie, confirming CFK’s guilty ruling would favour her opponents, knocking her out of the political sumo ring just in the nick of time. Waiting to do so until after she wins a seat at the provincial legislature would clash with the concept of political immunity enjoyed by elected officials, again putting pressure on her. Abstaining from making a decision would allow her to run and try and persuade the traditionally Peronist electorate to vote at a time when Mauricio Macri has subserviently accepted a unified front with Milei’s La Libertad Avanza in the Province, meaning a potential victory on Kirchnerism's home turf.
It’s a Mexican stand-off of sorts, that situation in action films where multiple characters are all pointing guns at each other, none of them able to put them down or shoot without risking getting shot. The Supreme Court, Cristina Kirchner, Milei, Macri, Kicillof, all of them holding up their iron, crosshairs locked in, and fingers on the trigger. The Court risks paying a high price, given the reputational erosion that inevitably will come from this circumstance. For Cristina, what initially seemed like only bad options has a silver lining, allowing her to avoid prison time will retain political centrality. For Milei and his libertarians, antagonising with CFK, her son Máximo Kirchner and his La Cámpora political organisation has always been the plan. Macri has already blown it, while Kicillof is in a hairy situation.
The governor has been trying to differentiate himself from Fernández de Kirchner from the start in order to avoid becoming “a new Alberto Fernández” – the former president who was initially conducted and eventually obstructed by Fernández de Kirchner. Kicillof has gone the distance to prove internally that he’s serious, detaching the local elections from the national vote – just like City Mayor Jorge Macri did to no avail. The governor with presidential ambitions seeks to impose his will on the composition of the candidate lists. CFK has now called for unity but will probably try to put her own names in key positions on the “unity” list. Some analysts have suggested that Kicillof is speculating with a symbolic defeat for Fernández de Kirchner in the most Kirchnerite of districts, ultimately forcing her to step aside and finally allow him take over.
The Casa Rosada has tried to paint the electoral cycle as extremely successful, cementing his sister, Presidential Chief-of-Staff Karina Milei’s role as kingmaker. The reality is not so rosy, as provincial elections generally went for local incumbents. The big exception was Buenos Aires City, where Presidential Spokesman Manuel Adorni came out on top. Much like in Buenos Aires Province, a local and relatively unimportant election saw national leaders take the trenches. It was the first battle between Macri and Milei since the libertarian won the presidential election in 2023. He’s slowly hacking at Macri’s old coalition while progressively absorbing PRO. With the provincial elections, the Milei siblings look to “send Cristina into retirement” and keep the momentum going. Everyone’s got their eyes on the Supreme Court, which has managed to remain behind the scenes thus far, but will be responsible for the resulting political situation one way or another.
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