And just like that, Argentina’s ultra-libertarian president, Javier Milei, sent the whole socio-political-economic ecosystem into disarray
Praised for his moderation and pragmatism over the last several weeks, the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist has now put in place a series of controversial measures which have divided public opinion, generating a new iteration of Argentina’s infamous “grieta,” our very own version of the polarisation that has now become the norm across the so-called ‘Western World.’ But, it’s no longer about the antagonism between Kirchnerites and their opponents, mainly represented by Mauricio Macri and the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, but about those blindly in favour of the wild-haired economist and those denouncing his every move as a diabolic, anti-democratic part of a ferocious plan to tear down the tenets of Argentine society.
Both sides seem to agree that he is executing a carefully crafted plan that will either elevate Argentina back to the lost status of “global power” of the late 19th century or ravage the nation in order put it on the chopping-block and conduct a fire sale to hand over the crown jewels to global financial elites. Those with access to the Casa Rosada tell a different story though, one of amateurism and incomplete staffing that would suggest the La Libertad Avanza coalition is acting more out of necessity than Machiavellian genius.
Milei finally broke out of his honeymoon period with those who didn’t vote for him this week after launching a massive package of reforms through a “decreto de necesidad y urgencia,” an emergency decree (DNU) which has become the standard practice for presidents seeking to bypass Congress and is generally used for less ambitious projects. The DNU is truly massive, with 366 articles including the repeal of multiple laws which call into question the constitutionality of the measure, even if governing via DNU is already contrary to the spirit of the Constitution and something that has happened in each of the last several administrations.
Put together by liberal economist Federico Sturzenegger, who ran the Central Bank under Macri and holds no formal role in the Milei-Villaruel administration, the “mega-decree” was announced by national (and obligatory) broadcast Wednesday night in a dramatic scene that had Milei as the protagonist in the foreground and his whole team standing behind, statue-like, as the president read sternly.
Earlier that day they had scored a political victory with Security Minister Patricia Bullrich’s “anti-picket” protocol making its debut, effectively diluting the first public protest against the government. Some reports indicated there was more security than 'piquetero' protesters. A few days earlier, Milei, Bullrich and Defence Minister Petri went to the city of Bahía Blanca to personally oversee recovery operations after a severe storm hit the Buenos Aires region, generating deaths and destruction. The two men donned military jackets while Bullrich, fond of dressing in combat fatigues, wore a basic white T-shirt. Clearly, this government won’t miss an opportunity for a photo-op.
The first of multiple major reform packages this government will try to pass, as the president made clear the following day, it immediately generated the reaction of his political opponents, along with a substantial portion of the population who took to the streets for a traditional “cacerolazo,” a protests with pots and pans reminiscent of the worst days of the 2001 crisis. There are no coincidences. Congressional leaders from the pan-Peronist Unión por la Patria coalition spoke with union strongmen from the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) umbrella union group. Members of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) warned of unconstitutionality and specialist lawyers indicated Milei was trampling all over the Constitution by failing to respect the separation of powers. Earlier that day, Buenos Aires Province governor Axel Kicillof, probably the leading member of the Peronist opposition, and his government decided to ignore Bullrich’s “anti-picket” protocol claiming it violated the constitutional right to protest. The previous week, Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo unveiled the government’s initial economic plan, generating a similar reaction in the political field which didn’t seem to make its way to the general population. The situation is beginning to change and as the actual implications of the Milei administration’s actions make an impact, social and political actors will begin to respond.
There should be few doubts that one of the strongest points of La Libertad Avanza’s electoral strategy had to do with communications, particularly on social media. These early moves suggest they will try and double down, betting on the use of their skills to try and compensate for the lack of political support, despite a strong victory over both Sergio Massa and the Peronists, and Bullrich and Juntos por el Cambio. Toto Caputo, however, is known to be particularly uncomfortable with the media. His pre-recorded message announcing tough economic measures — many of which contradicted Milei’s campaign promises, particularly tax hikes — was delayed several times reportedly due to the need for multiple takes and Milei’s direct involvement (or maybe indirectly through sister Karina). The second measure he announced, for example, was a year-long reduction of government advertising to zero – a direct strike to the beleaguered media industry and a measure that has practically zero impact on the deficit but high popular approval. The over-dramatisation of the security operation to contain a moderate-to-small protest, together with pictures of Milei and Bullrich supervising from police headquarters, allowed them to take advantage of the far-left Partido Obrero to score an easy win and show his electorate that they can control the streets. Yet, controlling a couple of thousand protesters is one thing. It’s a whole different story trying to contain a massive mobilisation organised by the unions, which could count with the support of social movements and part of the left, and even middle-class sectors, particularly if the economic situation becomes dire in coming months as inflation will spike. They say you need some 70,000 people to fill the Plaza de Mayo.
The “basis for the reconstruction of the Argentine economy” reform package could be another attempt to win the communications game and take the spotlight to appear active in the eyes of the public opinion. With absolute minorities in both chambers of Congress and several controversial reforms included in a massive package passed by Milei’s mega-DNU, it is highly unlikely that it won’t be immediately shot down by the Legislative Issues Committee which must approve it. Furthermore, several interest groups are putting together legal arguments to dispute the issue in court, where it could quickly make its way to a Supreme Court that has already proven eager to interject politically.
Ultimately, most, if not all, of the regulations, laws, and measures included in the decree will have to make their way through Congress and will therefore be subject to negotiations and amendments. Yet, Milei has shown initiative and wants to maintain, or extend, the popular support which took him to victory in the run-off and has already generated a circumstantial majority in the Senate to defeat the Peronist caucus.
There are risks that the ultra-libertarian could prove authoritarian and anti-democratic. He’s shown some of that in the past, particularly by claiming he would govern by plebiscite if he didn’t have the support of Congress (something Hugo Chávez did to amend the Venezuelan constitution) and by picking a dictatorship denialist as his running-mate. Many of his detractors have pointed to signs that suggest Argentina could descend into a state of totalitarianism, and this emergency decree fuels their suspicion.
It’s not clear whether the conditions for such a situation are in place. For now, he seems to be bluffing his political opponents. We’ll see if someone calls his hand.
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