News of comments

Going to the dogs?

16-12-2023 07:20 This final election 2023 column concludes a series running the length of the campaign – now it’s time to detail the resulting political architecture in the present tense.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

They also serve…

02-12-2023 10:23 That stateside visit threw something of a spanner into what is anyway very much a stop-go process of transition and Cabinet-building – Milei would seem anxious to remind people of the first half of his self-definition as an anarcho-capitalist.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Method in his madness?

25-11-2023 14:16 Javier Milei’s solitary rise to the top from almost nowhere in a couple of years is more apparent than real. The key to this success is more like the solution to Agatha Christie’s 'Murder on the Orient Express' – they all did it.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

18-11-2023 06:42 Democratic voting in Argentina ran on the basis of simple majorities until 1972 when that system was a non-starter for a military régime since it would guarantee victory for a Juan Domingo Perón. In order to give themselves the faint chance of the anti-Peronist chunk of society outnumbering the Peronist masses if obliged to vote en bloc, they introduced a system whereby nothing short of an absolute majority would permit victory in the first round.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Run-up to run-off II

11-11-2023 05:40 If everybody assumed Milei to be the next president after his PASO primary upset with Massa massively favoured following last month’s turnaround, the wheel could be turning full circle again.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Run-up to run-off

04-11-2023 05:37 If we have had two straight surprises in the voting so far this year, why not three?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Crouching tiger, hidden lion

28-10-2023 04:18 Fear of the unknown is such a conservative emotion that instead people ended up clinging to the status quo, inflation and scandals included.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Expecting every voter to do their duty

21-10-2023 05:51 While tomorrow’s election is widely seen as a three-cornered affair (like the hats in the times of Trafalgar), all three of its fleets tend to believe that there are only two sides. Could tomorrow’s election echo the battle by ultimately leading to a breakdown of existing alliances with a new Argentina eventually resulting?

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

The pit and the pendulum II

14-10-2023 05:22 The pit and the pendulum feed each other with “the worse, the better” logic, appealing to most candidates with Milei’s advice against renewing fixed-term peso deposits the outstanding example.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The pit and the pendulum

07-10-2023 06:22 Neither last Sunday’s debate nor the passage of eight weeks have produced any paradigmatic shift from the three-way tie of the PASO primary.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Hat-trick or the third wheel?

30-09-2023 05:07 Any win helps and far more so when the margin of Alfredo Cornejo’s victory in Mendoza surpassed all expectations. But does this injection of enthusiasm reviving optimism reach the dimensions of a game-changer for Patricia Bullrich?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Will Mendoza be the bulldozer?

23-09-2023 05:03 Whichever way Mendoza goes, it will be the last throw of the dice before general election day on October 22.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

It’s the election, stupid!

16-09-2023 05:37 By all but abolishing income tax, Massa has also abolished the contradiction between his simultaneous economic stewardship and presidential candidacy by chucking away his ministerial hat in favour of his electioneering cap.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Do you know the way to Santa Fe?

09-09-2023 05:32 The three-way split with half the electorate potentially up for grabs opens up infinite mathematical possibilities.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Neither ready nor steady but still go

02-09-2023 06:24 Is there any structure beneath the protest vote foam – is there any iceberg below the tip?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Milei – melee or millennial?

26-08-2023 06:00 The Milei vote can be seen as a backlash against impoverishment, laid at the door of a regime belittling self-made wealth, meritocracy and savings.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Two’s grieta, three’s a crowd

19-08-2023 06:01 While we are constantly told that Greater Buenos Aires is the “mother of all battles” deciding every election, Javier Milei’s win was hinterland payback, winning 16 of the 23 provinces, all inland – the mirror image of his 2021 midterm electoral advent

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Santa Fe not so holy or faithful

15-07-2023 06:56 Turning to tomorrow’s PASO primary in Santa Fe, the mutual backstabbing within Juntos por el Cambio mentioned above is far from absent there – indeed nowhere else is the internal warfare more open.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The elections according to Saint John

08-07-2023 06:59 San Juan is not an especially attractive city for tourists but it does have an uncanny knack for being a venue for key turning-points in Argentine political history.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

The men in the middle

01-07-2023 08:46 Hard not to read this as an unmitigated defeat for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner but those who see her as the ultimate political genius view this as a cunning move to leave Massa holding the baby for an inevitable national defeat while tightening her own grip on pivotal Buenos Aires Province.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Northwest by northeast

24-06-2023 01:22 We will have to await Chaco’s final provincial elections on September 17 to see how many degrees last Sunday’s political earthquake rated on the Richter scale.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Toward zero

17-06-2023 06:10 This is an election in which anything could happen – and also nothing, as is occurring in province after province. Pseudo-change in San Luis and a rock-solid majority in Tucumán attest to an underlying provincial continuity at all odds with a volatile national scenario.

by Michael Soltys

AND THAT REMINDS ME…

Of infighting and inland voting

10-06-2023 06:27 The deadline for defining electoral alliances nationwide expires in only four days’ time but tomorrow’s provincial elections are even more immediate … Tucumán is looking safe for the Frente de Todos government while San Luis could be close.

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

Umpteen candidates in search of an author

03-06-2023 06:08 If Horacio Rodríguez Larreta had again thwarted Mauricio Macri plans by imposing Fernán Quirós over Jorge Macri, this would have been three strikes and out in the PRO founder’s esteem – a hostility potentially fatal to the outgoing City mayor’s presidential ambitions.

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

A no-win election

27-05-2023 06:45 The fact remains that the last three people to run Argentina have all opted to sit this election out. The only question here is what lies behind their “fear to tread.”

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Under the volcano

20-05-2023 07:00 If three-quarters of the disenchanted in Tierra del Fuego preferred to vote blank than for an explicitly libertarian candidate, who is to say this might not be replicated nationwide?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

To vote or not to vote

13-05-2023 08:45 However cavalier the strongmen of these two inland provinces have been with constitutional limits in seeking multiple consecutive terms, the last-minute timing of the Supreme Court’s interruption of the electoral process is extremely unfortunate, lending itself easily to government outrage.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Three’s a crowd

06-05-2023 06:47 Tomorrow is Jujuy’s turn to go to the polls together with La Rioja and Misiones – can lightning strike twice?

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

Out of the pink (house) and into the blue

29-04-2023 06:55 In a country where the urgent almost invariably displaces the important, Alberto Fernández’s premature entry into “lame duck” status has had immediate consequences.

by Michael Soltys

CAMPAIGN COMMENTS

PRO or provincial?

21-04-2023 09:56 Does the end of six decades of one-party rule in Neuquén mark a new era for the province now and for the nation later this year?

by Michael Soltys

Campaign comments

April is the cruellest month

08-04-2023 06:02 The results of the local elections so far are puzzling – incumbents winning in often heavy turnouts when opinion poll after opinion poll is telling us that there are masses of angry and alienated voters out there.

by Michael Soltys