Despite problems at home and abroad, Trump keeps gaining allies in Latin America

Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in Colombia represents another boost for President Donald Trump’s aggressive diplomatic agenda in Latin America, in stark contrast to the headaches he faces in the Middle East and Europe.

Since Trump returned to the White House a year and a half ago, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Honduras have either shifted to the right or confirmed an existing conservative turn.

The overthrow of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which reshaped the region, triggered an unprecedented process of cooperation with the regime of the country’s new interim president, Delcy Rodríguez.

Washington has now turned its attention to Cuba, imposing what amounts to an almost total oil blockade that has forced the Communist government to rush through economic reforms.

The drastic policy has generated little opposition beyond Mexico and Brazil, the last major bastions of the left in the region, and Gustavo Petro’s Colombia, now on the verge of a change in government.

De la Espriella, a millionaire lawyer, “speaks the language many in Washington want to hear: a tougher approach,” said Rebecca Bill Chavez, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

Ecuador-Colombia axis

In March this year, following the dramatic military operation against Maduro in Caracas, Trump and allied regional presidents launched the Shield of the Americas alliance.

“Colombia will join” the security alliance, predicts Evan Ellis, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“I expect greater Colombian cooperation against groups designated as terrorists across the region, far beyond Colombia itself,” Ellis added.

One obstacle to Washington’s ambitious regional security agenda had been tensions between Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro over anti-drug operations conducted by Washington and Quito.

“With Daniel Noboa, De la Espriella and Washington all pushing in the same direction, politics along the Ecuador-Colombia border have not been this aligned in years,” said Rebecca Bill Chavez.

Bogotá could also quickly regain the anti-drug certification it lost under Petro.

Across the region, several conservative governments have embraced Trump’s militarised anti-narcotics agenda and the policy of building large prisons pioneered by El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele.

Panama is expected to announce changes to its prison system in July following a series of inmate escapes, while Honduras plans to purchase drones from Ukraine for its anti-drug campaign.

The end of solidarity

In Washington, public debates within the Organization of American States (OAS) also suggest that the ideological shift cannot be explained solely by pressure from Trump.

Latin America has changed its outlook on organised crime and migration pressures, as demonstrated in Chile, where the issue was one of the pillars of conservative José Antonio Kast’s victory.

The solidarity many Latin American countries once showed towards Cuba has largely faded.

“Cuba is under genuine economic and social pressure, and the region is changing politically. That creates opportunities, but also risks,” Chavez warned.

“As happened in Venezuela, the logical next step is military demonstrations, possibly followed by attacks,” Ellis believes.

The favourable political winds blowing towards the White House stand in contrast to Trump’s difficulties at home, where November’s midterm elections could cost him control of Congress.

They also contrast with his constant disputes with Europe, including with allies such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the continuing challenges posed by Iran and Israel.