With less than a week to go before voters head to the polls for the 2021 PASO primaries, Argentina’s main opposition coalition is polling well in the nation’s key battleground region, Buenos Aires Province.
Two new surveys released Monday show former Buenos Aires City deputy mayor Diego ‘Colo’ Santilli out in front in the race for a congressional seat in Argentina’s most-populous province, with the PRO candidate likely to see off an internal challenge from his UCR rival and coalition ally, neuroscientist Facundo Manes.
Notably, the polls also show that combined, the share of the vote going to the opposition surpasses total voting intentions for the ruling Frente de Todos coalition’s single list in the province, headed by Victoria Tolosa Paz.
However, the surveys also show a large number of citizens remain undecided, a state of play that could produce unpredictable results in the nation’s most populous province.
According to a poll from the Tendencias consultancy firm, Santilli (PRO) is backed by 24.1 percent of voters, with Manes (UCR) trailing on 10.1 percent. Together, the opposition's vote reaches 34.2 percent, outsourcing the single Frente de Todos list topped by Tolosa Paz and Daniel Gollán, which is backed by 33.4 percent of those quizzed.
Meanwhile, 10.2 percent of voters remain undecided, with outsider candidates Florencio Randazzo (Vamos Con Vos), José Luis Espert (Avanza Libertad) and Nicolás Del Caño (Frente de Izquierda) backed by 4.6 percent, 4.5 percent and 4.2 percent of respondents respectively.
The second poll released at the start of this week, from the Giacobbe & Asociados firm, also saw the opposition surpassing Frente de Todos in Buenos Aires Province if Santilli and Manes' tallies are combined. While Tolosa Paz ranked top with 27.1 percent of voter intentions, Santilli (27.1 percent) and Manes (6.5 percent) together reached 33.6 percent – a full six points above their Peronist rival.
However, underlining the trend about indecision, some 15.3 percent of respondents said they were still not sure which way to go. Interestingly, Espert scored 8.1 percent in this poll, out above Randazzo (3.4 percent), Del Caño (2.1 percent) and other candidates.
The survey also found that 52.9 percent of respondents assessed the work of the national government negatively, with 62.5 percent saying they wanted Frente de Todos to lose the 2021 midterms, compared to 27.3 percent in favour of a win.
The Giacobbe & Asociados survey, carried out between August 27-29, had a two percent margin of error and quizzed 2,500 respondents in Buenos Aires Province via mobile devices. The Tendencias poll, carried out via telephone survey, gauged the views of more than 3,600 people between August 30 and September 2.